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Each year I close out my articles by making some predictions about the upcoming 12 months and the changes that we may see in the Ethereum ecosystem and beyond. Last year I made a handful of predictions for 2020, some of which were on point while others – particularly my price guess – were just a little off the mark. First let’s have a quick recap before moving onto 2020:
Last Year’s Predictions
- Coinbase Adds 5+ New Cryptos – exactly 5 new coins have been added to Coinbase with dozens more now being explored.
- BitConnect Collapses – this may have seemed obvious in hindsight, but at the time of the article BitConnect was trading at its all time high of
$400. A few weeks later the coin would trade at $5 before tumbling under $1 and losing nearly all trading volume.
4. Ethereum issuance reduction rallies price
Unabated by the wild miscalculation of this year’s Ethereum price prediction, I expect that the upcoming reduction in issuance from 3ETH to 2ETH per block on
January 16th will lead to a significant rally in ETH/USD and ETH/BTC; returning it to the second most valuable cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap. There’s not much more to say here, other than I believe that Ethereum’s supply schedule is broadly misunderstood by most investors and that the realization of what’s to come (in terms of supply and demand of ETH) will be cause for celebration for those already invested.
5. Dan Larimer announces new project
Dan Larimer, the founder of Bitshares (no longer involved), Steemit (no longer involved) and EOS (somewhat involved) has hinted at yet another project that he may be interested in pursuing. In the EOS Telegram channel, Dan Larimer mentioned a new token that he had been researching.
This hypothetical token would be immutable, non-programmable, and limited to a currency role. It would in no way compromise the much larger use cases for EOSIO applications.
Given that the idea sounds remarkably like Bitcoin, it is hard to know whether Larimer was being sarcastic in his post. However, given his track record and the lack of a statement to say that he was “just joking”, it seems plausible that the skittish young developer may well depart EOS at some capacity.
6. Bitcoin SV price collapses
There were two hilarious/tragic things that happened to the crypto community in 2020.
First, there was the Blockchain Mediterranean Cruise, which saw hundreds of newly discovered millionaires sleaze about a boat for 4 days, interspersed with high-production-zero-preparation debates that – if you can bear to cringe through some of it – makes for some entertaining viewing.
Bitcoin Cash was a major feature on the Blockchain Cruise and this leads onto our second cause for hilarity and the topic of this prediction:
The price of Bitcoin SV, the Bitcoin Cash fork of November 2020, will collapse this year.
The Bitcoin SV blockchain is led by a man named Craig Wright, the same person who once visited Rwanda to tell a room full of people that he had more money than their entire country. Bitcoin SV (SV is used ironically to denote “Satoshi’s Vision”) makes very little sense from an investment or utility point of view; the currency has opted to revert to 2009 Bitcoin and the plan is to make no further changes. Security is also a major issue on Bitcoin SV; mining pool CoinGeek owns about 40% of the hashpower on Bitcoin SV and Craig Wright’s talk of “sunken treasure” (in reference to lost coins) hints at the possibility of recovering (some might call it “stealing”) funds.
7. XRP finally gets listed on Coinbase after 2 years, price doesn’t move
8. Ethereum price prediction
I’ll start again by saying that predicting prices is one way to look foolish. However, instead of continuing with a prediction, I encourage you to see our Augur prediction markets for the price of Ethereum at Augur.casino. In Q1 2020 I plan on relaunching the entire website, including the Augur predictions, so check back soon!
As always, the above should not be treated as financial advice and any predictions may be wildly inaccurate. Investing in cryptocurrencies is highly risky, do your own research and consult a financial adviser if necessary!
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Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Using Deep Learning
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The popularity of cryptocurrencies skyrocketed in 2020 due to several consecutive months of exponential growth of their market capitalization. The prices peaked at more than $800 billion in January 2020.
Although machine learning has been successful in predicting stock market prices through a host of different time series models, its application in predicting cryptocurrency prices has been quite restrictive. The reason behind this is obvious as prices of cryptocurrencies depend on a lot of factors like technological progress, internal competition, pressure on the markets to deliver, economic problems, security issues, political factor etc. Their high volatility leads to the great potential of high profit if intelligent inventing strategies are taken. Unfortunately, due to their lack of indexes, cryptocurrencies are relatively unpredictable compared to traditional financial predictions like stock market prediction.
In this blog, I will be going through a four step process to predict cryptocurrency prices:
- Getting real-time crptocurrency data.
- Prepare data for training and testing.
- Predict the price of crptocurrency using LSTM neural network.
- Visualize the prediction results.
To forecast cryptocurrency prices using all the trading features like price, volume, open, high, low values present in the dataset.
The dataset can be downloaded from the CryptoCompare website which can be found here.
The dataset contains total of 5 features. The details for them are as follows:
- Close Price — It is the market close price for currency for that particular day.
- High Price — It is highest price of currency for the day.
- Low Price — It is the lowest price for currency for that day.
- Open Price — It is market open price for currency for that day.
- Volume — The volume of currency that is being in trade for that day.
Where is the code?
Without much ado, let’s get started with the code. The complete project on github can be found here.
I started with loading all the libraries and dependencies required.
I have used Canadian exchange rate and stored the real time data into a pandas data-frame. I used to_datetime() method to convert string Date time into Python Date time object. This is necessary as Date time objects in the file are read as a string object. Performing operations like time difference on a string rather a Date Time object is much easy.
Let’s see how the dataset looks like with all the trading features like price, volume, open, high, low.
Next, I split the data into two sets — training set and test set with 80% and 20% data respectively. The decision made here is just for the purpose of this tutorial. In real projects, you should always split your data into training, validation, testing (like 60%, 20%, 20%).
Now let’s plot the cryptocurrency prices in Canadian dollars as a function of time using the below code:
We can observe that there is a clear dip in prices between December 2020 and April 2020. The prices keep on increasing from April 2020 to August 2020 with fluctuations happening in the months of July and August. From September 2020 onward prices are constantly decreasing. The interesting thing to be noted from this price fluctuation is that the prices are low in winter and it increases in the summer. Although this can’t be generalized as the dataset under consideration is just a small sample that is for a year. Also with cryptocurrency it’s hard to generalize anything.
Next, I made a couple of functions to normalize the values. Normalization is a technique often applied as part of data preparation for machine learning. The goal of normalization is to change the values of numeric columns in the dataset to a common scale, without distorting differences in the ranges of values.
Next, I made a function to extract data of windows which are of size 5 each as shown in the code below:
I continued with making a function to prepare the data in a format to be later fed into the neural network. I used the same concept of splitting the data into two sets — training set and test set with 80% and 20% data respectively as shown in the code below:
It works by using special gates to allow each LSTM layer to take information from both previous layers and the current layer. The data goes through multiple gates (like forget gate, input gate, etc.) and various activation functions (like the tanh function, relu function) and is passed through the LSTM cells. The main advantage of this is that it allows each LSTM cell to remember patterns for a certain amount of time. The thing to be noted is that LSTM can remember important information and at the same time forget irrelevant information. The LSTM architectures is shown below:
Now let’s build the model. Sequential model is used for stacking all the layers (input, hidden and output). The neural network comprises of a LSTM layer followed by 20% Dropout layer and a Dense layer with linear activation function. I complied the model using Adam as the optimizer and Mean Squared Error as the loss function.
Next, I set up some of the parameters to be used later. These parameters are — random number seed, length of the window, test set size, number of neurons in LSTM layer, epochs, batch size, loss, dropouts and optimizer.
Now let’s train the model using inputs x_train and labels y_train .
Let us take a look at snapshot during model training for 20 epochs.
I used Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as the evaluation metric. The reason behind choosing MAE over Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) is that MAE is more interpretable. RMSE does not describe average error alone and hence is much more difficult to understand. Since we want the model to be readily explained even to the non technical audience, MAE looks like a better choice.
Mean Absolute Error
It measures the average magnitude of the errors in a set of predictions, without considering their direction. It’s the average over the test sample of the absolute differences between actual and predicted observations where all individual differences have equal weight.
The MAE value obtained looks good. Finally, let’s plot the actual and predicted prices using the below code:
7 Must-Read Cryptocurrency Predictions For 2020
In our annual cryptocurrency predictions we forecast that the grand crypto bull market will continue in 2020
Our annual cryptocurrency predictions are a must-read. In the 2020 edition of our cryptocurrency predictions we feature the grand (secular) crypto bull market to continue even though some consolidation may be in the cards as per our Bitcoin forecast for 2020. Institutional capital will continue to pour into crypto even though this process appears to be going slower than anticipated. Crypto will increasingly integrate with real world applications. XRP will move in a wide rounding bottom formation which is ultimately bullish long term, as per our XRP price forecast. And Ripple’s Swell will set the bar for what ‘real life adoption’ means.
Let’s first review what we said last year, in all openness and transparency. We’ll continue with next year’s predictions.
Last Year’s 5 Cryptocurrency Predictions
In last year’s edition of our annual cryptocurrency predictions we predicted the following. We want to openly indicate what went well and what not in last year’s cryptocurrency predictions.
- Institutional money as the catalyst for the crypto bull market. It turned out that the crypto bull market continued, but it was not yet institutional capital driving it. This process of institutional money pouring into cryptocurrencies is going slower than expected.
- Bitcoin’s upside capped is what we said a year ago. This might still be the case longer term but for now it appeared that Bitcoin was the cryptocurrency that was most solid in its retracement in the 2nd half of 2020. Most cryptocurrencies fell back to their early 2020 lows while BTC is ending the year almost twice as high as its open.
- XRP becomes the new BTC. Here it becomes very interesting. XRP clearly is the cryptocurrency with most traction in real life. In terms of ADOPTION there is not any other cryptocurrency that comes even close to what XRP is doing, at scale. However, the XRP price has not reflected this potential. Admittedly, a big disconnect between the XRP price and our expectation a year ago.
- Only added value cryptocurrencies would do well. This appeared to be partially true. It is true that no value add cryptos did outperform, and are facing existential risks (rightfully so). However, several value add cryptos are ending the year on a not so positive note neither which is due to the crypto bearish bias in the 2nd part of 2020.
- Blockchain implementations would accelerate. This certainly appeared to be true, even though the number of crypto enabled blockchain applications were not the majority.
So with all this in mind what is in store for 2020? We feature 7 cryptocurrency predictions for 2020 in this article.
Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2020: Giant Secular Bull Market Continues
Bitcoin remains the leading indicator for the crypto market. According to its long term chart BTC looks to be building a long term base.
The long term chart suggests that the pace of the ongoing bull market #3 might slow down compared to the previous bull market #2. Note the emphasis on the word ‘might’. It is not a given, but it might happen.
Based on how Bitcoin will behave around current price levels we might need to adapt our investing strategy: from buy-and-hold to a combination of holding for the long term with medium term trades. How, how much, when … all these questions are what we solve in our premium cryptocurrency investing service. We guide our members in a way not anyone else is doing.
Presumably Bitcoin needs additional time before moving to a state of accelerated rise. That’s in our opinion the message of this chart.
All in all the message of the long term BTC chart is this: the grand secular Bitcoin bull market is still in place, and not going anywhere in the foreseeable future. Similarly, the grand crypto bull market is still intact, in 2020 and beyond.
Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2020: ‘Risk On’ Markets Supportive Of Crypto Bull Market
This may seem like a not very intuitive prediction but we feel strong that this will be a relevant as well as an important one for 2020.
In order to understand this point we have to take one step back. BTC is increasingly connected to the rest of financial markets which is because of the introduction of futures. More than any time before are large traders able to switch their capital from non crypto markets (like stocks, currencies, commodities, gold) to BTC, in two directions.
Because of this we believe crypto markets are more subject to the tactical risk cycles.
As per our annual forecasts we believe that a new RISK ON cycle has started in November of 2020: Small Caps Break Out as well as our Dow Jones forecast.
The likelihood of a continued bear market as well as big crashes in BTC in 2020 are decreasing expotentially.
Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2020: Institutional Capital Pouring Into Crypto Investments
As said in the introduction the capital from institutional investors came into the crypto market but at a lower pace than expected. Institutional investors need to manage their crypto investments in a different way than the retail public, and have different legal obligations as well as specific restrictions and requirements.
Case in point: Bakkt took almost a year longer than planned to launch to the public. Yes they are growing fast, but started from scratch.
According to this Coindesk analysis there is a slow learning curve among institutional investors. This quote says it all:
The reality is that institutional investors are slowly getting comfortable (learning), and this process will continue to take time. Despite educational progress through 2020, some institutions are wondering if it’s too early to be investing in this space, and whether they can potentially get involved in investing in digital assets in the future and still generate positive returns, but in ways that are de-risked relative to today. Despite a few other challenges imposed on larger institutional investors with respect to investing in digital assets, true believers inside these large organizations are emerging, and the processes for forming a digital asset strategy are either getting started or already underway.
Institutional capital will make a difference, but it will take some more time to reach the tipping point. It may start in 2020 but also in 2021. One thing is sure: in 2020 there will be an acceleration when it comes to institutional capital inflows.
Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2020: Integration with Real World Applications
We will increasingly see integrations between the ‘real world’ and the crypto world.
If you think about it so far the crypto and blockchain world has been pretty isolated. A world that stands on itself.
We believe that 2020 will be a pivotal year in which blockchain / crypto moves closer to the real world. Especially in the enterprise world we will see ways to open up real life data integrations with blockchain / crypto applications.
Case in point: Chainlink is doing amazing work in this field. The list of Chainlink’s partners is pretty impressive, and it illustrates our point. Companies like Google, Alibaba, Oracle, etc are interested to connect data applications ‘offchain’ to the blockchain through Chainlink. See this list here and here. The transaction based statistics of Chainlink show their growth: see this tweet.
Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2020: Adoption Will Beat Non Adoption
Adoption is the what will make the difference ultimately, also in cryptocurrency prices.
However, we did not see an adoption driven price discovery mechanism in 2020. And given the evolution of the crypto market it will not be the key driver for all cryptocurrencies neither in 2020.
The one exception that might start making a difference is XRP. The adoption of XRP in transactions starts becoming really significant. The demand for XRP is growing significantly. With the partnership between Ripple and Moneygram (one of the largest money transfer services worldwide) it is clear how fast the volumes are growing that XRP is transferring from one currency into another currency (one source and another source).
Fortune.com featured the $200M that Ripple raised to accelerate the XRP adoption process (right before 2020 kicked in).
There are only a handful of other cryptocurrencies that come close to similar signs of growing adoption. But 99% of cryptocurrencies show no sign of adoption whatsoever. Sooner rather than later they will disappear.
Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2020: XRP Consolidates in a Wide Rounding Bottom Formation
From a price perspective the breakdown of XRP was an important event of 2020, which came half a year after the amazing crypto rally of April/June.
We believe that XRP is setting a giant rounding pattern. A major rounding bottom or ‘saucer base’ in more technical terms. Eventually this will resolve to the upside, and we believe that XRP will set a major bottom in the first half of 2020 before starting its steady rise.
Our longstanding price target of 20 USD is still valid. XRP will not trade at 20 USD in 2020 obviously, that’s a bit too ambitious, but it will set the stage in 2020 for an accelerated rise later down the road.
Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2020: Ripple’s Swell to set the Bar for Adoption
Last but not least we believe that Ripple’s annual event ‘Swell’ will increasingly set the bar for adoption.
The type of conversations and evolution that was presented at Swell in 2020 is amazing. Again, no other cryptocurrency comes close to achieve what Ripple is doing, which in turn helps realize the full potential of the XRP ecosystem.
Cryptocurrency Predictions Log: Weekly updated throughout 2020
This is a weekly log to keep track on our crypto predictions for 2020. We update this log on weekly basis with short bullet points to highlight whether the crypto market in 2020 is developing according to our cryptocurrency projections outlined in this article.
- First week of January: we see encouraging signs on the BTC chart as the leading indicator for the crypto market. The odds favor a reversal to take place which should help BTC as well as the entire cryptocurrency market tremendously.
- Second week of January: a great start of the week for the price of BTC and other cryptos. They are rising along with BTC. We couldn’t imagine it better than this, great start of the year 2020.
Stay tuned, and keep following our work to get updates on the crypto market. We strongly recommend to sign up to our premium crypto investing service (detailed actionable real-time insights).
Cryptocurrency Price Predictions 2020: Ripple Is the Clear Winner
Cryptocurrencies Offer Insane Returns
Investors looking for cryptocurrency price predictions are about to have an embarrassment of riches because everyone and their uncle is shouting predictions from the rooftops. Some of them may even come true.
Most of these forecasts concern Bitcoin and Ethereum but do not turn a blind eye to the ones featuring “altcoins” such as Litecoin and Ripple. They are starting from a much lower base, making it easier for them to double, or even triple, in a short amount of time.
For example, NEM advanced 27,919% in 2020. Do you think the stock market can deliver those kinds of returns? Not likely. And yet, cryptocurrency price forecasts often stretch into four or five digits.
Here’s a quick example. In one week in 2020, random cryptos achieved triple-digit gains.
|Biggest One-Week Gains in Cryptocurrency (2020/01/22 – 2020/01/29)|
Of course, none of these coins have proven their worth. Speculators are largely responsible for the gains, meaning that LLToken or Sojourn—or whatever weirdly named coin is the flavor of the week—could sink to zero at a moment’s notice.
That said, these numbers should adequately demonstrate how the cryptocurrency market in 2020 can make you rich.
Who Will Rule the Cryptocurrency Market in 2020?
This may come as a surprise, but the most promising cryptocurrencies for 2020 are the most famous ones. Why? Because survival is next to impossible in the crypto Wild West, so the ones that make it are usually there for a reason.
For instance, Bitcoin’s immense market power is tied to its brand name recognition. It only grows stronger as the market splinters into more and more pieces.
However, there are more substantive reasons to bet on the original cryptocurrency, including the fact that other currencies came into existence by forking off from Bitcoin’s blockchain. As a result, investors can only access them by first converting fiat money into BTC tokens.
Ethereum is another stalwart of the cryptocurrency market. Its creation of “smart contracts” has taken the industry into orbit, providing new companies with an alternate funding source called “initial coin offerings” or ICOs. You may have heard the term in recent months.
ICOs have become all the rage, with some companies raising $100.0 million to $200.0 million in a matter of hours. The best part of an ICO (at least from the perspective of the startup) is that no equity changes hands. It’s basically like Kickstarter, but on 13 different steroids.
Most of these token sales happen (surprise, surprise) on Ethereum, which leads to greater trading volume and, to be quite honest, continued relevance for Ether tokens.
And as for Ripple, well, it stands out for being an enterprise play in a field dominated by consumer-facing currencies. While everyone is trying to gin up interest in their peer-to-peer payments service, Ripple is busy negotiating deals with global financial institutions.
Not all currencies can mimic this strategy because very few of them are structured as companies. They don’t have a corporate hierarchy or explicit control over the direction of their token. Some people view that as a knock against Ripple—I do not.
In fact, I believe that Ripple will outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum in the next 18 months.
Ripple Price Prediction for 2020
Ripple trades under the ticker symbol “XRP” and has a market capitalization of roughly $50.7 billion (at the time of writing). Its token value surged 36,000% in 2020.
For those who may be unfamiliar with Ripple, it is a blockchain company trying to disrupt SWIFT, the shadowy company that facilitates international payments transfers.
Anyone that has sent money overseas knows what I’m referring to. In order to make the payment, you have to provide a SWIFT code. The company has a monopoly on cross-border transfers, having more than 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries on its network.
Ripple wants to take SWIFT down by working together with banks and other financial institutions. In some quarters, this willingness to work with banks taints Ripple by association. Some view it as heretical, but I personally find Ripple’s approach refreshing.
You see, blockchain is a difficult concept to understand. So are the differences between fiat money and blockchain-based currencies. They are not very easy to explain, making it an uphill battle convincing people that blockchain is the answer to economic crises.
That is a major obstacle for currencies like Bitcoin because they depend on popular support from vendors and consumers. Ripple does not. It only needs to convince banking officials that blockchain is inevitable and then the game is won.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2020
Although I believe XRP will outperform its peers in 2020, that doesn’t mean I think Bitcoin will fall apart. It still has major tailwinds at its back. Moreover, it survived the internal conflict of 2020, earning it serious trust points with investors.
By seeing that Bitcoin could survive a mutiny like Bitcoin Cash, investors were finally able to accept that core issues with the cryptocurrency can be resolved. After all, the entire squabble began over scaling issues. One side didn’t like SegWit and they were allowed to express that frustration by forking the blockchain. So they did.
And guess what happened then?
Nothing. Bitcoin miners didn’t jump ship or abandon SegWit—they just carried on doing whatever they were doing. The same was true for the Bitcoin Gold fork, and for the attempts to implement SegWit2x. None of these distractions truly impaired Bitcoin.
As a result, the 12-month price chart for BTC looks amazing.
Bitcoin prices are up 1,136%, an impressive tally considering the volatility it endured.
Our Bitcoin price prediction suggests it could reach $20,000 by the end of 2020. However, it does not have standout cryptocurrency price predictions for 2020, since its gains would not match Ripple’s price growth on a percentage basis.
Ethereum Price Prediction for 2020
Ethereum holds a special place in the cryptocurrency market. It is more malleable than Bitcoin, more open than Ripple, and has a growing number of other cryptocurrencies dependent on its blockchain. Oh, and it dominates the ICO playing field, so even though it doesn’t have the top cryptocurrency price prediction for 2020, investors shouldn’t underestimate it.
Ethereum’s growing stature comes with growing pains, but it has the added benefit of a brilliant leader: Vitalik Buterin. Not only did Buterin invent Ethereum before his 20th birthday, but he is currently working on solutions to scale the platform. The guy is a bona fide genius.
Also, the Ethereum Enterprise Alliance (EEA) represents the biggest consortium of Fortune 500 companies working hand-in-hand with blockchain developers. Together, they are discovering ways to implement ETH into everyday business functions.
Securing that institutional trust could be Ethereum’s gateway to widespread adoption, thus leading to a virtuous circle where more credibility leads to higher ETH prices and higher ETH prices lead to more credibility.
A milder form of that pattern evolved this year out of the ICO craze. Ethereum prices shot up from $7.98 at the start of the year to $411.00. After that, ETH tokens dropped to the high $200.00s and low $300.00s, waiting for something to happen.
The current price of ETH tokens is roughly $1,184.72, or 14,757% above where it ended 2020. So in percentage terms, investors rewarded Ethereum more than Bitcoin.
I am incredibly bullish on this trend continuing through 2020, though it will be mitigated by a greater demand for underlying growth. It should be noted that Ethereum’s surge looked even more emphatic because it was escaping the specter of its past.
The platform had been weighed down by its own issues with blockchain forks, not to mention a disastrous episode involving a crowd-sourced venture capital fund.
It was called the Decentralized Autonomous Organisation, or DAO, and it ended in ruins. Lots of people lost money, investors lost faith in Ethereum, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started to pay attention. At the time, no one was sure the platform or the cryptocurrency would survive.
But Ether emerged from that chaos stronger than ever. ETH prices soared to all-time highs, the ICO market took shape, and central banks began their blockchain experiments. Whether or not you like Ethereum, it’s difficult to argue this currency has staying power. Its roots are dug too deep for the cryptocurrency price to simply fall apart.
Some regulatory confusion about ICOs is bound to throw a wrench in the works, so if you’re looking for a cryptocurrency price forecast for Ethereum, I have to keep it conservatively bullish: Ether prices should hit $2,500 by the end of 2020.
As if it weren’t obvious enough by now, I believe Ripple has the best cryptocurrency price prediction for 2020. Not because it has superior technology, but because it is in the right place, at the right time, and at the right price.
All it takes is for a few megabanks to join the network and—boom—XRP could shoot through the roof.
If you are still skeptical, I urge you to examine the trading volume data of each cryptocurrency. What you’ll notice is that BTC and ETH are far more active than XRP, which suggests to me that an entire swath of the market is unfamiliar with Ripple.
Once Ripple permeates mainstream culture to the same level as Bitcoin and Ethereum, I believe an influx of speculative trend-followers will set this token aflame. We could see XRP prices deliver another round of triple-digit gains in 2020, making it the clear cryptocurrency to watch.
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