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Global stocks rebound as trade war fears ebb, dollar falls
Stocks on Wall Street rebounded on Friday as investors who were initially spooked by the prospect of a global trade war backed off those concerns on the notion that President Donald Trump was just rattling sabers as a negotiating tactic.
Stocks on Wall Street rebounded on Friday as investors who were initially spooked by the prospect of a global trade war backed off those concerns on the notion that President Donald Trump was just rattling sabers as a negotiating tactic.
Trump’s pledge on Thursday to impose hefty tariffs on steel and aluminium imports sparked concerns about tit-for-tat retaliation that could wound a healthy US economy that is poised to deliver record corporate earnings.
An ensuing rout in risk assets knocked the dollar from multi-week highs and briefly pushed all three major US stock indexes into negative territory for the year as fears of a global protectionist wave would be negative for the greenback.
“Absolutely unacceptable” said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about the potential imposition of any US steel and aluminium tariffs.
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However, investors decided a full-blown global trade war was not in the making and that Trump was only grabbing people’s attention about the US trade deficit, said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors in New York.
“For a real estate guy like that, you pound the podium, you rattle some sabers, you get everybody’s attention and then you negotiate back to some reasonable midpoint,” Orlando said.
The tariffs are unlikely to significantly hurt corporate America’s overall earnings, according to stock market strategists, who did not immediately adjust their profit estimates following Trump’s announcement.
MSCI’s gauge of stock performance in 47 countries pared losses of 1 percent to close little changed.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded from losses of 1 percent or more to close higher. The Dow, however, ended lower and remained in negative territory for the year so far.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 70.92 points, or 0.29 percent, to 24,538.06. The S&P 500 gained 13.58 points, or 0.51 percent, to 2,691.25, and the Nasdaq Composite added 77.31 points, or 1.08 percent, to 7,257.87.
Earlier in Europe and Asia, where markets were closed when Trump’s tariff proposal was announced on Thursday, major equity indexes fell more than 2 percent. The Nikkei index tumbled 2.5 percent in Tokyo and the Hang Seng index fell 1.5 percent in Hong Kong.
Asian steelmakers were hit hard, with South Korea’s Posco down 3.6 percent and Japan’s Nippon Steel off 3.8 percent. Toyota Motor shares slid 2.4 percent after the company said tariffs would substantially raise production costs and the price of cars and trucks sold in America.
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The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading regional shares lost 2.13 percent to close at 1,437.14.
The sell-off in European stocks weighed particularly on the export-oriented German DAX index , which fell 2.27 percent to a six-month low.
ArcelorMittal SA , the world’s biggest steel maker, fell 3.7 percent while euro zone automakers and parts companies fell 2.29 percent.
Investors feared that Trump’s move could herald the tough trade actions he had promised during the electoral campaign as a way to incentivise companies to just “buy American, hire American,” said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Tempus Inc. in Washington.
“The U.S. dollar may face some scrutiny and as a result struggle to hold on to recent gains,” Doyle said.
The dollar index fell 0.42 percent, with the euro up 0.5 percent to $1.2328. The Japanese yen firmed 0.50 percent versus the greenback at 105.72 per dollar.
The Mexican peso, which was lower during most of the session, gained 0.15 percent at 18.80. The Canadian dollar fell 0.39 percent versus the greenback at 1.29 per dollar.
U.S. Treasury yields rose as markets priced in the risk of a trade war. The 10-year yield bounced back from a three-week low as the Bank of Japan’s chief hinted at a possible exit from its ultra-easy policies if inflation hits its target in fiscal year 2020.
The benchmark 10-year note fell 18/32 in price to push its yield up to 2.8679 percent.
Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield dropped as low as 0.606, its lowest level since late January, before inching up to 0.648 percent.
Dollar Stalls As Trade Fear Mount, What You Need To Know
It’s fascinating how these collections of pixels amaze and command attention, and you’ve probably come here because you want to know more about them. If you play Team Fortress 2 at least moderately, you will have seen at least a hat or 2, and if you’re lucky even a few unusuals on your enemies/teammates heads.
But what are unusuals?
They are a number of things. They are, first and foremost, hats, and they have what Valve calls “Particle Effects” on them, meaning you see some weird cool stuff doing its thing on the head wearing it. That naturally makes it obvious, more so than any other items in game, – except the weapons and projectiles of course – you have probably wished you had one too.
Why can’t I have one?
If you are Premium in Team Fortress 2, you’d have probably known that you get cool stuff F2P’s don’t. For one, you get free regular hat drops, stuff that F2P’s would love to wear. But of course, Valve does not give everything so easily. Unusuals can only be uncrated, from ANY crate you have, even halloween or event-specific ones. You don’t see the crate description saying “Unusual Hat” because that bright blue text screaming “An extremely rare item!” means an unusual hat.
How many crates must I use until I get one?
It is not known the exact probabilities of unusuals being uncrated from any crate, and many have pegged the estimate around 1%. However, recent statistics such as those from Tf2 Finance [tf2finance.com] show that it is actually even rarer than that. Yet, there are a few who have struck gold by uncrating an unusual within their first 10 keys, and those unlucky souls who spend 100s and turn up nothing.
That’s why they are so expensive?
Yes, it is exactly why. Unusuals are currently the rarest item you can get regularly – meaning it is not event specific or has any set restricting requirement – and it is its rarity that gains its popularity.
If you are feeling lucky, unboxing many crates – recommended above 10 – at a time can be rewarding or extremely painful. Since there is no set guarantee that you will get an unusual, you can never be sure of making those keys you spent so much money on back.
There are many ways you can purchase unusuals. The Steam Community Market has many for sale, whether it be fair or unfair prices. TF2Outpost [www.tf2outpost.com] is the current biggest and most popular way of trading and buying unusuals, along with many other websites
such as TF2TP, Bazaar.tf and so on.
There are 2 main forms of items people accept when you purchase an unusual from them, if you have nothing in your backpack and want to start out afresh.
Paypal, Webmoney, Western Union, Bitcoin. the list goes on. Many people accept different forms of currencies in exchange for their unusuals, and it often comes with fees due to transactions over the medium you are paying for. This is, however, the most risky way to pay if you are not buying it through the Steam Community Market. After all, there is no guarantee that guy will give you his/her unusual after you pay, and if you are the seller, you will not know if the buyer will keep his promise in his payment after the item has been traded. Fear not, for there are many ways to minimize your risk of being scammed, which will be listed later on in this guide.
Of course, if you are purchasing through the Steam Community Market, it is extremely safe. Steam is a giant company and has millions of transactions in its history, meaning you can trust it to deliver the goods you paid for.
Keys are the very base unit of currency for the unusual trader. They are known as “Pure” to us because it is like your dollars and cents in real life, things excheangable for anything and not limited to barter trades.
Promos are different. They are “Promotional Items”, often given to the lucky few who did something Steam/Valve promoted, perhaps a game or a treasure hunt, that rewarded them with a rare non-droppable/buyable limited edition item. The most common and famous promo used in trading, and the secondary base unit of currency in unusual trades, is the Earbuds. There are many other forms of promotional items such as Bill’s Hat, The Holiday Headcase, Max’s Severed Head etc. These are all pegged in price relation to keys and are quoted in key prices when bought or sold.
Obtaining them can be used through the same methods described above, through Steam Community Market (Only keys) or major trading sites where traders ply their trades. Always take precautionary steps – read down for more – when purchasing them.
If you are completely new to unusuals and have no clue how to price them – I have an unusual, you do too, why not we just swap? They are equally rare. right? – then this is where you need to know it.
Is every unusual equal?
No. Unusuals may be rare, but as a whole sum they are not equal in rarity. A very rough guide and explanation can be found at http://backpack.tf/unusuals where a mildly accurate count of unusuals existing shows that there are vast differences in rarity.
In general, the rarer a hat is, the more likely it is to be expensive. There are the extremities of rarity that can cost ridiculous amounts of money, and the best example right now is the Mask of The Shaman. It is expensive because it has been unboxable almost since unusuals were available, but extremely few of it exist, making it more wanted than others, such as A Rather Festive Tree, which is much, much more common.
This applies to both hats and effects, but effects will be covered first.
There are many, many effects that exist (40+ in fact) as of this guide’s making, and each has its own specific and unique style.
The image above shows an effect named “Nuts n’ Bolts” in TF2. Compare it with something like this:
It is easy to guess which effect is the most obvious when you are playing on the server in-game. In fact, Nuts n’ Bolts is rated the worst classic effect by the community most commonly, and Burning Flames (2nd Pic) is rated the best classic effect by the community. As a very rough guide, prices on unusuals are dependent on the effect they carry, the more obvious/full-bodied it is in-game, the better chance of its price.
The hat itself also carries significant pricing changes. While hats are harder to agree upon than effects (one hat may look nice to you but literal **** to another), it is often easy to use common sense when you see a hat to give it a price range. A hat such as
Should definitely look much better than a hat like
These basic ideas, combined with the effect appearance form a very basic guide on how to price unusuals against each other.
For an extremely rough guide on effect and hat tiers, TF2PC’s
Will help a new trader learn the outlines of tiers in unusuals.
Alright, so you know the very basics of unusual pricings in TF2. You know that some hats and effects are more than others, and you know rarity counts. But what else?
There are 2 main websites (increasingly only 1 now) that provide unusual pricings on TF2. You must remember, however, that unlike other gaming economies, TF2’s economy is very, very fluid – meaning it changes constantly, all the time and every time. These websites are great for historical snapshots of the pricings and sells they have been made for (Even if they show as current prices) as they are based of previous sells and not current offers and pricings one can find on the market.
TF2 Price Check [www.tf2pricecheck.net] used to be the main method of pricing unusuals, but since
2020 it has become increasingly less popular and outdated, due to many reasons such as a failing system crushed due to excessive trust in users and manipulative posters/bots that spoilt the prices.
http://backpack.tf/ is the most popular – infamous too – website to date that the majority of traders across TF2 currently use. It is, of course, never accurate – it only refers a snapshot of pricings and sells in the past that are as recent, but not current, as possible – many, many traders have used it as the bible of TF2 – it is a false messiah. Yes, there are other claims such as corruption and admin abuse which have not been proved or disproved, but the main thing that has to be understood is that it is never wise to follow it to the tee.
Backpack.tf bases its modifications or setting of prices on previous supposed sells with proof given. These sells are usually within 2 weeks but in rarer cases can extend back months, and often times within a few days prices and sells on Outpost and other major sites change, leaving the price changes unreliable. The desirability and sellability of a hat also is never reflected on prices on backpack.tf, and this will later be covered.
Ok, So How DO You Get an Exact Price?
That’s the thing. You never will. If everyone knew the exact price of their hat no one would make or lose money. It is an imperfect market – no one knows everything -, but the main things you must take into account are the Current Offers if any on those you can see for sale, the Buyouts (Optimal prices) available, and if any, your past experiences with the unusuals as well as your friends’ past experiences. Factor in, of course, the tiers of each hat and effect to achieve a better guide, but remember. Nothing is perfect.
Many beginners fail to understand that TF2 items do not have fixed prices. They are not prices on the Mann. Co Store you find and will always reobtain, and this is especially so for unusuals.
Demand and Supply dictate everything in our lives, and in TF2 too. Nothing stays constant, and the greater the demand of an item or/and the lower the supply of an item, the higher the price is, and vice versa.
This applies to everything in TF2, but especially in Unusuals since they are rarer and much more tracked and wanted. Some unusuals, like the Respectless Rubber Glove
Are in low demand, simply because they do not look nice. Others, such as the Team Captain,
Are well loved and wanted very much because they are generally appreciated and look nice. This applies to the unusual effects too. This is all simple and easy to understand if there have always been fixed variations of effects and hats. but it isn’t that way.
Every year Valve has released new unusual effects. These waves of effects – often at least 5 new ones appear – are known as generations to traders. There are roughly 7 Generations of Effects now, but the original releases – Burning, Scorching, Sunbeams, Circling Hearts, Purple & Green Confetti, Searing and Vivid Plasma, Circling TF Logo and Circling Peace Sign Effects – remain the most wanted to most traders.
Why So Much Love For 1st Gen?
This has again got to do with supply and demand. It is not so much the 1st generation effects’ looks as with the addition and availability of effects. Every time a new batch of unusual effects are released, they are naturally highly priced. This is because the supply of them is extremely low, and they are novelties – something that will make you stand out, even from other unusual owners – that are attractive. However, the market slowly gets filled with these unusuals and interest in them wane. These 2 factors mean bad news for supply, as demand plummets, driving prices down crazily. This effect is noticed every time a new update is released, and novice traders often get stuck and hurt badly due to it. Older generation effects establish an old, larger group of lovers and also wider acceptance, meaning they will have a greater pool of demand and hence supply will want to tend towards there, leading to preferences in 1st Generation effects and hatred towards the newest of effects.
Robotic Hats are a novelty, in a sense that such an idea never appeared before. However they have come to be widely unwanted by the majority of older traders simply because they seem to be disgusting metallic versions of “nicer” hats that had already existed in their opinion, leaving towards severe unwantedness and hard-to-sell experiences with current owners of unusual robotic hats.
If you read from beginner to advanced, it will be clearer to you how wantedness, availability, rarity, effect/hat appearance, price fluctuations and market behaviours affect pricings in TF2. Yet there is one more thing that can never be taught : Experience. The more you learn, the more you know and the lesser chance you have of mucking up your trades. Don’t worry, these basics are enough to prevent you from making a large loss. But to make enough to get your dream, you have to work for it. Go forth and immerse yourself to learn the tricks of the trade!
Gifteds are exactly what they mean.. gifted by another person. This happens when an unusual is put inside a gift wrap by someone and then traded to another – often as a gift – and unwrapped. Gift wraps leave a mark, the gifter’s name, on the text of the unusual description. It tells the person, date and time which it was wrapped.
All that’s fine, so what if it’s gifted? Values are not affected isn’t it? Logically, it does not. Yet, there is a distinct reason why gifteds are very very well avoided in trading. This is because of the earlier dupes. One of the most prominent method to dupe an item involved gifting it – exploiting a flaw within the old item servers that were not integrated with Steam – and as a result, gifting items got pegged to duping items. There was a time where gifting and duping were in such common relation that Steaming Pyromancers, which so happened to be commonly duped, dropped in price from 1.5 Buds to 10 keys for those that were gifted – regardless of dupe or not – and this stigma, albeit less strong, continues to this day.
Others also avoid gifteds because it seems branded – a person gave this, and they do not like having another’s name on it – and hence see it as a mark of devaluation. Yet again, it is up to you to decide whether you want gifteds or not and to see if values and offerings play out, but keep in mind of the stigma given to it – logical or not.
Unusual effects and hats sometimes seem to fit together – very well. When they are common sense that the effect and hat combination are very fitting and seem to compliment each other very well, they are known as “themed”. One example is the Blizzardy Storm A Rather Festive Tree – Christmas Tree + Christmas Weather – amongst many, many others.
Themes often raise the hat price with that effect above other effects that would usually cost more, and this is to be expected. However, there are established, common-sense themes and there are overstretched themes. Some traders might try to find everything to fit into a “theme” when there is clearly none, and overprice their hat. You must always use your common sense before falling for such an argument as this is just ludicrous overpricing on their part and unfair towards other traders.
There are, of course, borderline themed unusual combos that would be known as “fitiing” effects and hats – not enough to be a theme, but good enough to raise prices slightly- that is a grey area that is left to the buyer and seller to negotiate.
You might be offered certain vintages for your unusuals in your trading experiences, and you may wonder why such vintages are so expensive. Yes, there are many vintages in TF2, most commonly weapons and hats. This is because those weapons and hats were owned before the Mannconomy Update, where trading and microtransactions were introduced. As a reward to those who crafted weapons and hats before the update – amongst other rewards – the weapons and hats they had became vintage. Yet, there remain rare exceptions where these vintages defy the rules.
Vintage Bills, Vintage Buds, Vintage Community Sparkle Lugermorphs, Vintage Big Kills, Vintage Gibuses, Vintage Maxes, Vintage Shortstop, Vintage Refined/Reclaimed/Scrap and Vintage Tokens are the more common ones that have extraordinary values to them. Most of their origins were actually from earlier Steam-restoring causes. Their owners used to have unique, normal versions of them, but found out that if they deleted their backpacks (by accident/purpose) and reported it to Steam, it would restore their backpack and some of their items would become Vintages. This was not well-known, and for that the vintages of items that were never supposed to be vintages (Things released after the Über Update) turned into highly valued items.
NOTE: Steam never does this now, so do not try to delete your backpack and cry to Steam. It will not do anything for you.
Dupes are a touchy thing. Some people care about duped unusuals and items but some people do not. But what are dupes? Unusuals are usually obtained through uncrating them, and there is no other legitimate way – except for restoration of backpacks when a scam/shark/hijack has been proven to Steam – to obtain it.
However, a while back, there were bugs and exploits that enabled less-than-honest people to “duplicate” their hats or whatever items they wanted so as to double the number of items they had. This resulted in 2 unusuals forming from just 1, 1 a copy of the original. This has been fixed for a while by Steam, but in the older times such dupes were common enough that many wanted to bring down the prices of unusuals that had been duped simply because 2 came from 1.
The most striking and relatively recent examples include : Secret Team Captain, Secret Executioner, Secret Brown Bomber and most of the rare vintages mentioned above. This did result in a massive devaluation of every hat that was duped majorly (more than 3 times usually), in some cases making the value drop by 2/3rd’s or 1/2, costing traders much pain and agony.
Dupes still are considered bad and unwanted, but not by everyone. Some do not care as it is still an unusual, nothing different from others when worn in-game, but others stay away from it as they find it “dirty”. It is up to you whether or not you choose to deal in dupes, but normally duped hats that aren’t infamous and massively duped will not pose a huge trouble to one in trading.
There are a few known hats that are essentially “retired”, meaning that they are no longer unboxable as unusuals or dropped as normal hats. This includes the first generation of hats introduced to TF2 – viewable here – and a number of other hats, such as the Coffin Kit, Noh Mercy and possibly (suspected) Villains Veil amongst rare others.
As they are no longer unboxable, they are essentially viewed to be worth more in the community, although their total worth’s boost varies from hat to hat due to looks, demand, current stock amongst other variables.
Some people may claim that certain effects – especially Halloween ones – are “Retired” and no longer unboxable. This is a big lie. Every effect, from 1st to 7th Generation effects, are not retired as of this guide’s creation. They are unboxable still, but some have restrictions.
Halloween effects are not unboxable during non-Halloween periods, but ALL Halloween effects, including previous years’ ones, are unboxable everytime a Halloween event occurs in TF2. This has been proven with multiple hats – such as Ye Oiled Baker boy and the Black Watch – being released years after the previous Halloween effects were released but being unboxed with them.
Every other effect besides Halloween effects are unboxable all-year round, albeit with some restrictions – like the Robotic Effects only being unboxed from Robocrates – but with no time restrictions.
Scams, in the real world, is when someone takes something from you without paying for it, not through stealing, but through luring and deceiving.
It is, unfortunately, a common enough occurence in TF2 Trading and one that affects new traders the most due to lack of experience.
One of the oldest scams in the book is the Paypal Chargeback Scam. Paypal’s payments are by default transactions that can be retracted by the person who paid it, meaning if during a trade someone who wanted to buy something from you did go first in payment, and the trade was done smoothly with money transferred to your Paypal account, he can still charge it back, withdrawing his funds and leaving you with none.
If you are a person selling items for Paypal, the first rule of thumb is never to go first unless the other person has legitimate reputation. There are a few outlets to check for his reputation.
1. His status in Steam. People who buy items are usually serious about the game and log many hours on Steam. He should have at least 100-200 Hours on TF2, and sufficient other games or have many friends and groups to his account.
2. Check TF2Outpost by searching his name (Top right hand corner of browser), if he is not banned on it it is less risky to trade with him. However this IS NEVER FAILSAFE AND IS ONLY A PRIMARY STEP!
3. From TF2Outpost there is a link to his SteamRep. SteamRep [steamrep.com] is the oldest anti-scam/hack website run by reputable high tier traders that handles and registers previous and current offenders and is currently the most reliable website in terms of detection of scammers, and works in tandem with all major web-based trading sites and in-game based trade-server hosting organizations, such as Pink Taco, MCT, PPM etc.
4. Beware of this, greatly. There are many, many people who impersonate very reputable constant buyers through Paypal that will fool you through all these steps. There is, however one way to find out whether they are fake or real. All steam accounts have ID’s at their back, like mine, which is ‘/unusualsareepic’. Find the actual legitimate vendor on Outpost by searching their name. Their outpost profile should be very active, with lots of trades and posts posted and a long history of trades – Here’s PyroProtectMe (PPM Owner) [www.tf2outpost.com] account – and then click on their steam community page – PyroProtectMe’s Steam Page – see that extension ‘/fanaticgamer’? That’s a trademark of PyroProtectMe that cannot be copied (Steam would not allow it). If someone named PyroProtectMe adds you and tries to pay you for something you have, first check their steam extension, if it does not add up he is a fake. Report him to Steam immediately and un-add him!
Of course, there are many other types of scams.
Swap scams are usually easier to avoid if you pay close attention – which you should in every trade – that occurs during a trade on Steam itself. When you trade a person in a steam trade, the items loaded up for trade do not show their unusual effects. This means that a Nuts n’ Bolts Merryweather and a Burning Merryweather will look the same – with a purple box around them – and if they are swapped out fast enough, you would not notice it.
Swap scammers usually first put a trade that is very beneficial to you – maybe 1-2 or even more buds profit – for swapping unusuals. They then ask you if you want to buy anything else in their backpack, and load many items (Often more than 10-20) into the trade. Naturally, you would pay attention to the new items instead, but this is only a ploy. Most probably you would not have any interest in the remaining items, and he will then remove them. What he will also do is remove the original unusual offered, and swap it out with a lower effect unusual but with the same hat. As this swap is made at the same time he removes other items, you may not notice it.
You should ALWAYS check the contents of each item in a trade before you make the trade. Scroll over each item on both sides of the trade and make sure everything is correct, or else it might cost you a mighty fine amount.
This happens when someone promises you a certain amount of credits on Steam in exchange for your item. There is only one thing you need to know. STEAM NEVER ALLOWS TRANSFERS OF FUNDS BETWEEN PLAYERS. No matter what he does to convince you, using fancy text or assuming Valve Adminship, this will never happen. Just outright reject him.
There are many other types of scams that occur in TF2 trading, but these are the most common ones found that plague players in TF2. Avoid them at all costs, and it’ll save you a hefty sum.
HIjacking works mostly in tandem with Phishing. Unlike Scams, Hijacks are usually involuntary and snatch-style – you do not have control once you pass a certain point – and they often cost whole backpacks.
Phishing is common in the real world and unfortunately more prevalent in TF2. It is the use of falsified mock (Fake) websites to fool the victim into clicking it, thinking it’s the original website and accidentally giving his/her information to the fake website, which is run by the hacker and who will utilize it to overtake the account of the victim through the information provided.
Phishers can be random Steam Adders, but most are on TF2 Outpost, and most right now are simply bots or previously hijacked accounts – they are programmed to mass propagate these links and nothing else – that place fake offers (I pay your BO/I will pay max price!/I agree to your prices) and then ask you to add them – linking VERY SIMILAR BUT FAKE WEBSITES – often to what appears to be Steam. They always have a minor error – (http://www.steamcormunity.com) notice the ‘r’ instead of ‘m’ in co-r-munity, (http://www.steamcommmunity.com) notice the extra ‘m’ – amongst many other possible modifications.
The legitamte Steam website – especially the login window page – will show up as a Secure Web Page on your browser, something like this below in Chrome browser:
No other fake website based off Steam will have the same secured key assurance from your browser- always check that before you allow yourself to login.
Besides the common fake Steam link, there are more sinister and dangerous links that may be sent to you and you must avoid at all costs. Short-links (like adfly) can often hide the link they are linked to and mask the threat. Sometimes the links will link to a download link that instantly downloads (secretly) trojans, worms or other malicious viruses into the computer of the victim. This does not only lead to losses in the TF2 Economy, but data that is stored in the computer – work, credit cards, etc. – will also be lost. To make sure, NEVER EVER click on links you do not know, it is better to be safe than sorry.
Social Engineering (Or Reverse of it) is very dangerous. Mattie!, once the richest person in TF2, was hijacked through Reverse Social Engineering – thankfully he got his account back – and the only way to avoid it is to never use the same password for everything, or use passwords easily related to your life that most people will know. A Reverse Social Engineer will guess the passwords and account names you use by studying your social circles, preferences and other personal showcases and can lead to easy guessing of your passes for important things, especially through the use of personal questions.
Sharking is essentially the attaining of severe profit levels from one trader – who does not know that he is losing that amount – to another trader – who knows the worth of it and purposely withholds information that he is profiting greatly to the other trader – and is often despised by the trading community.
Quicksells – although hated – are common, and legal. However they usually border on the 50% off mark and each trader knows the worth and loss/profits they are embarking upon when closing the deal. Sharks, however, are hated because it essentially is massive profiteering off an unknowing and often unwilling victim – often >50% (>80% profit according to TF2 Outpost) and causing one trader to gain massively more value than the other. One example is paying only 1-2 Earbuds for a Burning Flames Killer’s Exclusive – something sold for >100 buds in the past – and when the seller of the KE did not know of it’s worth.
It is NOT sharking when the person who sold it for a massive lost KNEW what he was doing and was OK with it. That is just pure luck and profit for the other, and he has gotten lucky.
Previously, sharks – if proven – were reportable to SteamRep, and people who were found to have sharked were banned on Outpost, SteamRep and sometimes Valve even banned his ability to trade. Sadly, that ban on SteamRep has been lifted recently – perhaps because sharks are harder to prove and very arguable – although it is sometimes possible to get the person banned on Outpost and Valve with considerable and un-contestable proof.
When trading, know that if you trade any large-time scammer, sharker, hacker, phisher or illegitimate traders KNOWINGLY and in a MEDIUM-LARGE scale, you have a HIGH CHANCE of getting BANNED simply for aiding someone who the trading community does not want to support.
Generally, if you stay within the guidelines listed above and refrain from doing illegitimate actions in TF2 Trading, your reputation should stay fine.
However, if you are the type to dabble in Paypal and cash in and out constantly, you would definitely need to create a Source-Op [forums.sourceop.com] thread – Source-OP is directly linked to SteamRep and is the go-to place to see if someone is reputable in real money dealings, having a longer thread with positive reputation helps to get easier, faster and even cheaper deals.
If you have been the victim of any form of illegitimate actions, always try to gather as much information as possible. Take screenshots of the trades if possible (Ctrl + Print Screen works fine), chat logs, inventory history, steam account of the offender, any place where proof of the transaction or verbal boasting/confirmation of the incident are visible and report them to SteamRep & Valve. With more information, Admins of both will be able to attain a better grasp of what happened – and move effectively.
IF you lost items during these transactions, only Valve has the power to restore them – not anyone else – and if you are unlucky or cannot provide sufficient proof, you may never get those items back. SteamRep and Outpost amongst others can only ban them on each website and alert other users about them to prevent them from doing any bad deeds anymore. The main idea is precaution and safety over everything else, never ever fall for such traps easily.
Trading is, after all, interacting with others. And if you interact badly, it’s going to come round to you. Polite traders are often more successful in trading and they get better treatment in trades and from the community as a whole.
1. Always be polite – never rage for little or no reason – treat everyone like a human, and give them the benefit of the doubt. If they make mistakes or accidentally lowball, give them a chance to clarify before unleashing your torrent of anger on them. Naturally, if they persist and severely insult you or your items, you have the right to be angry – just do not take it too far.
2. Leave a + rep on the Steam Profile after a successful trade. +rep’s are somewhat status symbols that approve of the person and it is just trade courtesy to award it to a deserving trader if both of you have come to an agreeable and successful trade.
3. READ NOTES. On Outpost as with other major trading sites, notes are given to state the prices, wants and preferences of the seller for their items. You have probably written your own if you have sold anything before, and you’d like if people followed it. Before you expect something, give it. Read others’ notes and leave a reasonable offer, not lowballs, and if you respect them, they will respect you – unless they are indecent traders who will not get great buisness
4. Never retract after giving your word. This is not always avoidable, but keep it to >
Fear & Greed Index –>
What emotion is driving the market now?
- Fear & Greed Now: 26 (Fear)
- Fear & Greed Previous Close: 28 (Fear)
- Fear & Greed 1 Week Ago: 25 (Extreme Fear)
- Fear & Greed 1 Month Ago: 7 (Extreme Fear)
- Fear & Greed 1 Year Ago: 74 (Greed)
Seven Fear & Greed Indicators
During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 43.76% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating greed on the part of investors.
Last changed Mar 31 from an Extreme Greed rating
Updated Apr 7 at 4:35pm
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 46.70, 19.32% above its 50-day moving average and indicates that investors are very concerned about a decline in the stock market.
Last changed Apr 2 from a Neutral rating
Updated Apr 6 at 8:00pm
Bonds have outperformed stocks by 9.06 percentage points during the last 20 trading days. This is close to the weakest performance for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are fleeing risky stocks for the safety of bonds.
Last changed Apr 6 from a Neutral rating
Updated Apr 6 at 8:00pm
The McClellan Volume Summation Index measures advancing and declining volume on the NYSE. During the last month, approximately 2.55% more of each day’s volume has traded in advancing issues than in declining issues. This indicates that market breadth is improving, though the McClellan Oscillator is still towards the lower end of its range for the last two years.
Last changed Feb 21 from a Fear rating
Updated Apr 7 at 4:25pm
The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds the number hitting highs and is at the lower end of its range, indicating extreme fear.
Last changed Feb 27 from a Fear rating
Updated Apr 7 at 4:24pm
The S&P 500 is 12.99% below its 125-day average. During the last two years, the S&P 500 has typically been above this average, so rapid declines like this indicate extreme levels of fear.
Last changed Mar 4 from a Fear rating
Updated Apr 7 at 5:09pm
Investors in low quality junk bonds are accepting 2.46 percentage points in additional yield over safer investment grade corporate bonds. While this spread is historically low, it is sharply higher than recent levels and suggests that investors are becoming more risk averse.
Last changed Feb 26 from a Fear rating
Updated Apr 6 at 8:00pm
Fear & Greed Over Time
|GILD||Gilead Sciences Inc.|
|LVS||Las Vegas Sands Corp.|
|TXN||Texas Instruments Inc.|
|UA||Under Armour, Inc.|
|NXPI||NXP Semiconductors NV|
|VZ||Verizon Communications Inc.|
|LABD||Direxion Daily S&P Biotech B.||
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World economy edges closer to a recession as trade fears spread
Enda Curran and Katia Dmitrieva , Bloomberg News
Trade war could cause full easing cycle
The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is nudging the world economy toward its first recession in a decade with investors demanding politicians and central bankers act fast to change course.
In the U.S. alone, the recession risk is “much higher than it needs to be and much higher than it was two months ago,” Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. Treasury secretary and a White House economic adviser during the last downturn, told Bloomberg Television. “You can often play with fire and not have anything untoward happen, but if you do it too much you eventually get burned.”
Summers, who teaches at Harvard University, still sees a less than 50/50 chance that the U.S. enters a recession in the next 12 months. Investors are much more bearish: A closely watched segment of the yield curve, the difference between 10-year and three-month notes, inverted the most since 2007, indicating bets on protracted weakness.
New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday stunned investors by dropping its benchmark rate by 50 basis points, double the expected reduction and sending the kiwi tumbling. Thailand also surprised, cutting by 25 basis points. India’s central bank lowered its rate by an unconventional 35 basis points.
While tight labor markets globally and the recent shift by central banks should provide a cushion, economists are starting to war game for how a recession could happen. Their fears are mainly centered on trade.
Under one scenario, U.S. President Donald Trump would carry through with his latest threat to impose 10% tariffs on a further $300 billion of Chinese goods, drawing a retaliation from President Xi Jinping. While the direct cost of those tariffs is likely to be small, it is the uncertainty created by a further escalation of the trade war that could weigh on investment, hiring and ultimately consumption.
Morgan Stanley economists predict that if the U.S. puts 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports for four to six months and the country hits back, a global economic contraction is likely within three quarters. The tensions also extend beyond the U.S and China to include Japan and South Korea as well as Britain’s future relationship with the European Union.
The worry is without a trade truce soon, markets will extend their recent slide and uncertainty-plagued companies would pull back further on investment, extending the pain of manufacturers to the services sector. Then, an otherwise tight job market would start to crack and consumers would retrench.
While central banks would likely cut interest rates and perhaps resume quantitative easing, that may no longer be enough to revive animal spirits this time and governments might not be fast enough to loosen fiscal policy.
“With no end in sight, there are significant downside risks to our forecasts for U.S. and global growth,” Bank of America Corp. economists warned clients this week. “If the trade war escalates — this could include a more explicit currency war — uncertainty would be considerably higher and financial conditions much tighter.”
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say
“Asset purchases — if the ECB and others take that path — will be less effective this time than they were in the past. Conventional policy space is limited. Unconventional policy is of limited effectiveness. Best hope it’s not needed.”–Tom Orlik, chief economist
Much depends on consumer and corporate confidence.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s global manufacturing purchasing managers index already shows contraction. June data on industrial production in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, showed the biggest annual slump in a decade. The European Central Bank is poised to unleash a renewed round of stimulus as soon as September, potentially including a rate cut further into negative territory, to fight a deepening slowdown.
In the U.S., manufacturing growth has slowed for four straight months and Citigroup Inc. equity strategists have cut their earnings forecast for S&P 500 companies.
Then there are consumers. Those in China and the U.S. have continued to spend, perhaps encouraged to by tight labor markets. But JPMorgan economists reckon the pace of global hiring in the second half of this year will slow to its softest since 2020-13. One early warning sign: Car sales in China are reeling from a historic slump.
Barely finished cleaning up from their last recessions, central banks are swinging back toward rescue mode. Having cut rates a week ago for the first time since 2008, the Federal Reserve is on course to do so again next month and investors price in further action by year-end. That’s despite Chairman Jerome Powell’s signal that he’s undertaking more of a mid-cycle adjustment than a pronounced easing cycle.
But this time around central bankers may not be powerful enough given rates are already low and further action may not offset the fallout from the trade troubles. Investors surveyed recently by Bank of America Corp. identified monetary policy impotency as their biggest concern.
“We are using interest rates to fix problems that they cannot solve,” said Patrick Bennett, head of macro strategy for Asia at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Hong Kong.
An added complication is the U.S. Treasury’s decision this week to label China a currency manipulator after China allowed the yuan to weaken past 7 against the dollar for the first time since 2008.
“We have gone from some degree of uncertainty to bucket loads of uncertainty yet again,” said Fraser Howie, who has two decades of experience in China’s financial markets and co-wrote the 2020 book “Red Capitalism.”
–With assistance from Craig Stirling.
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