Review Is Forex Holy Grail Legit Or Scam

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Forex Holy Grail

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Discovering the Forex Holy Grail

This is a title that is hard to read or write without smiling. The “holy grail” is the mother of all Forex jokes and cynical constructions. Yet it exists, is staring us all in the face, but is widely ignored, because the psychological stresses of working with the grail are paradoxically greater than most people can cope with.

Before the existence of the holy grail can be proven, it has to be defined, as many grail hunters are not really clear about what it is they are looking for.

The Forex Holy Grail Concept

The holy grail is a system or strategy with clear rules that works well enough to ensure effortless trading which is profitable overall. Very often such a system is seemingly found, only for it to fail later, at which point the grail quest must begin again. This is also a larger metaphor for the journey undergone by many retail traders as they struggle to achieve profitability by hopping between different systems and styles.

The major mistakes that less experienced traders make when they build strategies are either to base them on too limited an amount of historical data, or to over-optimize them with too many indicators that make it curve-fitted. This is important to understand, and if you are one of these traders, the sooner that you come to the realization that this is a fruitless and time-wasting path, the better it will be for you. I hope this article will shorten your path to profitability.

The Holy Grail Revealed

The answer is simple. Instead of trying to build the perfect strategy that most profitably fits the historical data, take a step back, relax, and contemplate the big picture of how markets statistically tend to move. After all, as the holy grail is surely a robustly profitable trading strategy that never stops working, logic holds that it has to take advantage of a permanent and persistent “flaw” or phenomenon in the market. So forget about candlesticks and indicators for the time being, and think about speculative markets. What phenomena do they exhibit that might be exploited by the trader? There are two that are common and repetitive:

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Mean Reversion – after the price pulls away from a longer-term average price, sooner or later it always returns to the average price, which is another way of saying “what goes up, must come down”.

Fat Tails within the Returns Distribution Curve – in plain language, markets tend to overreact, rising and falling excessively due to the human sentiments of greed and fear acting upon market participants.

Can either of these phenomena be exploited? Looking at mean reversion first, it is possible but problematic, as stop losses may need to be very wide and profits are by definition limited. I cannot see this as the basis for a holy grail.

The overreaction of markets and their tendency to produce excessive returns on a statistical basis is the holy grail, or rather, provides the basis for a holy grail: a methodology that will make effortless profits over time.

The best way this can be explained is to imagine taking a handful of salt grains and throwing them up in the air. Suppose you were then able to measure the distance of each grain of salt from the throwing point. You would find that most of them would be relatively close to you, with a few outliers that had travelled further away. If you make a graph showing the distribution of the results, the graph would look like a bell curve, which is a typical and “normal” distribution:

The bottom axis shows the distance travelled by each grain of salt. The percentages show how many grains travelled each given distance.

Now suppose that you were constantly buying and selling randomly in the Forex market, and you measured and recorded the maximum possible gain of each trade over thousands of trades and thousands of days. If you constructed a version of the above graph with those results and superimposed it upon the earlier graph, the result would look something like this, with the dotted lines representing the market’s returns distributions:

So, it can be established that speculative markets such as the Forex market produce more excessive returns, both positive and negative, than can be expected from a “normal” returns distributions model. A greater number of excessive price events happen than would normally be produced by simple randomness. In plain language, the market offers more big winners and losers than it really should.

Here is the holy grail: the use of tight stop losses will remove the excessive losing events, and the use of wide take profit targets will allow the “fat tail” of excessively positive returns to be captured. Yes, it can be this simple, although it is not without a few potential pitfalls.

In order to illustrate exactly how the fat tail phenomenon can be exploited, let’s examine some back test data run on Gold and the major Yen crosses from 2020 to 2020 over a period of 3 years. These were the most volatile and trending instruments in the Forex markets during most of this period. If a very simple trading strategy of entering upon the next bar break of any engulfing bar on the H4 chart in the direction of the engulf was followed, using a stop loss placed just the other side of the engulfing candle, the following results would have been achieved by instrument and reward to risk profit targets:

Notice how a very simple, straightforward strategy that takes no account whatsoever of trend, direction and support and resistance can be made into a positive expectancy of 53 cents gain for every dollar risk, simply by not taking profit until reward has reached 50 times risk!

It would be simple to improve these results by moving stop losses to break even after a certain period of time on every trade. This is because the strongest winners usually will only retest the entry, if at all, relatively quickly.

Even the Holy Grail has Pitfalls

The holy grail exists, but it has to be handled with caution. You can find the grail by trading the right instruments that move with maximum volatility, i.e. those markets that are most attractive to speculation, and using simple entry strategies to ensure you participate in the market’s excessive movements in the direction of your trade. You do not have to be right or forecast the major moves: you just have to be there, cut your losers short, and let your winners run. The natural tendency of the market to produce fat tails will do your work for you.

There are two major pitfalls that this might lead you to. The first is that you will be better served by a more intelligent exit strategy than simply aiming for a fixed reward to risk multiple. You need to be booking wins above 10 R:R, ideally towards 25 R:R or even beyond, but each trade will be different. Look to exit around those levels but use some intelligence and discretion. Also, being prepared to move stops to break even when the trade is a certain distance or time in profit should help.

The second major pitfall lies in the fact that this type of strategy will always produce very low win rates, where you will lose as much as over 90% of your trades. This will inevitably cause very large losing streaks which will severely test both your mental strength and your money management strategy. The grail gives gold, but it is hot to touch and burns the unwary! Do you have what it takes to sit through twenty or more losing trades in a row? Do you have a money management strategy that will properly protect you from ruin should you begin with a long losing streak? Will you be diversified and uncorrelated enough in order to keep losing streak risk to a minimum?

One final danger is worth a mention. It is natural to try to filter entries. However it is very problematic to distinguish entries that are likely to reach a ratio of 25:1. Furthermore, missing just one of these winners will set back your overall expectancy, unless the method used will also filter out at least 25 losing trades at the same time.

These are some questions to ponder and investigate. Spend some time back testing. The holy grail has been placed in your hands!

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2020 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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Please make sure your comments are appropriate and that they do not promote services or products, political parties, campaign material or ballot propositions. Comments that contain abusive, vulgar, offensive, threatening or harassing language, or personal attacks of any kind will be deleted. Comments including inappropriate will also be removed.

Is forex trading real or a scam?

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I’am just back from one of these Greg Secker “Learntotrade” events as I really had to see for myself what the fuss was about, since Iam ramping up providing education at request and finding this offering increasingly quoted in conversation from time to time. Hmm..

After 45 minutes, I decided to leave.

I wouldn’t say what he is doing is a scam per se, hes quite direct about what he is offering too but to any market participant of worth or well educated person of self-worth it is absolutely intellectually dishonest nonsense. Trying to offer a package that allows you to “sit back and reap the pr.

Holy grail of Forex trading

Most Forex traders begin their quest to be successful in trading by looking for a bullet proof strategy or system that will make correct trades and make them rich and successful within a year or a few. Most of the newbie in trading mainly relate these systems with a very high win rate and a good reward to risk. A system having both of the mentioned characteristics would be fit to be called the Holy Grail of trading simply because they make bigger wins than losses and also win most of the time.
Most experienced traders however understand that the quest for such a system is futile, and if it exists am yet to come across one. The reason for this is that most systems can be classified as a long term, medium term, short term and the very attractive scalping systems. The short term systems include the day trading systems while the medium term systems include intraday trading systems. Most medium term to long term system users make their money from a relatively small number of win trades that made more, that is, a low win rate but a good reward to risk. The short term system users and scalpers make their money by making smaller winnings many times, that is, a high win rate but a relatively poor reward to risk. For instance trend following systems produce a low win rate but when they do win, they win big and recover losses and still leave some profit on the table.

That said; it is true to say one does not necessarily need a high win rate system to make money in Forex trading. Harder to believe for newbies is that; one does not necessarily need a good reward to risk to make money trading Forex. This is harder to believe since most newbies are taught to let their profits run and cut losses early. This is true since prices trend at times offering an opportunity for large profits (prices follow a distribution curve with fat-tails). On the other hand it is possible to make money with a poor reward to risk system if it has a high win rate, say over 90%. The reason for this high win rate is that these systems target fewer pips (close to 1 in the distribution diagram below) and hence a high probability to reach their targets.

We will cover more on distribution as related to Forex trading on a later article, for now let us stick to our topic.
Let us crunch some numbers now, to make it more vivid. Theoretically, a strategy with 50% win rate and a reward to risk of 1:1 would breakeven after a good number of trades (over 100, the more the trades the more reliable the statistics). However, the truth is that such a system would lose money due to costs such as spread and slippage. This is the reason why Forex is regarded as a minus-sum game (the winning traders make less than the amount lost by the losers because of cost associated with trading such as spread). Due to this, a system with a reward to risk of 1:1 would have to have a win rate above 50% to be profitable.

That said; a profitable Forex trader has to choose between these two extreme systems or find a balance between the two that still makes money. The Forex trading newbie have to understand that as the reward to risk reduces, the system has to increase its win rate to remain profitable and vice versa. The main thing that the newbie traders should consider is selecting a system that allows them to trade in comfort. The low win rate – good reward to risk systems may perform poorly for a long time before they get the one or two saving trades. This may subject most newbie traders to a lot of discomfort and anxiety- especially while trading with leverage.
Traders have to accept choosing systems from either side and settle for the one they feel most comfortable with. To enhance their profit and comfort as well, money management is crucial. Good use of money management will set the trader ahead of the pack and let him sleep peacefully at night without making several peeps at the trading platform.

In conclusion, there is no one single Holy Grail in this dynamic Forex market, every trader has to find what works for him or her and stick to it with discipline.

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