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Forex Fundamental Analysis
Изменение баланса спроса и предложения, которое определяется под воздействием различных экономических факторов, является причиной для движения котировок валютных пар и других торговых инструментов. Это аксиома. Фундаментальный анализ Форекс позволяет спрогнозировать вероятное развитие рыночной ситуации на основе существующих и возможных изменений в политической и экономической жизни общества. Рассматриваемый анализ учитывает самые разнообразные показатели. Среди них главными являются данные по инфляции, уровню безработицы, процентная ставка в конкретной стране, показатели торгового баланса и т.д. В данном разделе Вашему вниманию представлен фундаментальный профессиональный анализ, выполненный опытными и квалифицированными экспертами рынка форекс.
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Обращаем внимание, что многие основные финансовые показатели для проведения фундаментальной аналитической работы находятся в свободном доступе и публикуются в средствах массовой информации. Найти эти данные Вы можете в тематических журналах, официальных сайтах государственных учреждений, ресурсах независимых научных организаций и т.д. Фундаментальный анали Форекс является достаточно сложным. Чаще всего начинающим Forex трейдерам самостоятельно выполнять такой анализ весьма трудно. Это неудивительно, поскольку для его проведения необходимо досконально знать теоретические основы и учитывать множество указанных выше и других взаимосвязанных финансовых факторов, которые нередко могут даже противоречить друг другу. В такой ситуации практически незаменимым становится фундаментальный качественный анализ, уже подготовленный профессионалами валютного рынка Forex.
Fundamental Analysis vs Technical Analysis
Differences Between Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
Fundamental analysis refers to the analysis of financial aspects of business like financial statements and financial ratios and other factors like economic and others affecting the business to analyze the fair market value of its share/security whereas technical analysis refers to the analysis of share/security fair price by examining and analyzing the past trends and changes in price of shares and by studying historical information of business.
Fundamental analysis is a methodology of stock valuation which evaluates a stock based on its intrinsic value (fair value). On the other hand, technical analysis is a methodology of stock valuation which evaluates a stock on the basis of charts and trends and predicts the future price of the stock.
Both methods are used for evaluating the stock and prediction of future stock prices but while fundamental analysis focuses on the intrinsic value of the stock, technical analysis focuses on the past trend of the price movement of stock.
Just to give you some examples:
Martin Schwartz, a successful wall street trader, gained reputation and wealth due to Technical Analysis. Whereas, Jim Rogers, a popular investor owes his success to fundamental analysis. Both of them may disagree on many concepts. But they will surely agree that emotional control is the most important path to follow.
What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis aims to find the enterprise value of the company. This means arriving at its Intrinsic price. This kind of analysis uses Economic factors. These factors prove the fundamental elements to determine the price. So if you are opting for the Fundamental route, be sure to perform the following analysis:
- Industry Analysis
- Company Analysis
- Economic Analysis
- In the long run Stock Price corrects itself.
- You can make gains by purchasing an under-valued stock and then wait for the market to correct itself.
This investing technique is adopted by buy, hold and value investors.
What is Technical Analysis?
It is also a method of evaluating Securities. But the entire game here is dependent upon the statistics generated by the market. Charts and patterns are the Bread and Butter of technical analysis.
So let’s see what are the characteristics of technical analysis:
- This analysis uses past price movements to predict future price movements.
- Trends and Patterns play a major role, rather than the Intrinsic Value.
- Market Price is everything. Factors affecting it are not considered, like in fundamental analysis.
The Three Golden Rules:
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Technical Analysts adhere to these three Golden Rules:
- First Rule: Prices discount all information available to the public.
- Second Rule: Price movements are not random. Trends behind the price action can be established by using Technical tools.
- Third Rule: Price Trends are likely to repeat themselves.
Fundamental vs Technical Analysis Infographics
Let’s see the top differences between Fundamental vs Technical Analysis.
What is Fundamental Analysis?
While technical analysis evaluates the share price action of a stock, fundamental analysis evaluates the actual business operations to determine the financial health of the company, project future growth prospects and determine current and future valuation. Fundamental analysis can be performed quickly with various widely available financial tools or be extensive depending on how much time and effort the investor wants to commit.
How Does Fundamental Analysis Work?
Fundamental analysis uses publicly available information usually disclosed by the company through SEC filings to build an accurate assessment of the business. It is believed that a company’s fundamentals are the key long-term driver for share prices. While short-term market fluctuations impact immediate stock prices, the market will eventually price a stock correctly in the future. Fundamental analysis attempts to extract a fair valuation for the company to determine if the markets have overvalued or undervalued the shares. Based on this thesis, investors can decide if the shares are an attractive investment now or wait for a better valuation later.
Components of Fundamental Analysis
This various components of research include analysis of the earnings reports, company business model/strategy, catalysts, and financials including assets/liabilities, financing/debt obligations, credit facilities, rumors and press release documents. Additional research on the company’s sector/industry and peers can also be performed. It also involves staying current on any executive changes with the management and board of directors. Intensive fundamental analysis can be tedious and time consuming for an individual investor.
To attract and maintain clients, full service brokerage firms assign the heavy legwork to in-house financial analysts that specialize in specific sectors, industries and companies. Many online discount brokers have also beefed up their research departments to retain customers. The most widely followed analysts run intricate fundamental analysis through various qualitative and quantitative models to forecast future earnings results known as consensus analyst estimates. Meeting, beating or missing these estimates have an immediate and material impact on share prices.
Who is Fundamental Analysis For?
Long-term investors benefit the most with fundamental analysis, since valuations and stock prices ultimately reach parity in the longer run. Swing traders benefit depending on their holding period and premises for holding (IE: undervalued assets or buy the rumor, sell the news into a scheduled event). Intra-day traders are mostly affected when news, events or rumors trigger price volatility and spur momentum on heavy volume, often resulting in price gaps up or down in the pre and post-market. Earnings report releases generate the heaviest volume and price action, which is why traders look forward to each earnings season. For biotechnology companies, clinical trial data and FDA decisions tend to generate the most volatility.
Basics of Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis requires information provided by the company to develop a thesis about the business. These are some of the factors that should be included in the thesis.
Understand a Company’s Real Value
Perception is reality in the financial markets. Different investors and analysts will have differing valuations for a company. Where one analyst sees a dying legacy pipeline, another may see an undervalued asset. For example, when retail big box stores suffered declining sales, private equity focused on the undervalued valuations of their real estate assets. This sparked a rally in the sector based on a new perception. However, the continued declining sales forecasts caused the sector to plummet, when the earnings reports revealed even larger revenue declines, as perception shifted negative again.
Sentiment Influences Perception
The markets are the ultimate judge and jury as to which valuation pricing prevails and when. Sentiment influences perception, which is why stocks tend to overshoot their valuations in strong bullish markets and undershoots during weak bearish markets, as the adage of a “rising tide lifts all boats” rings true. Astute fundamental analysts will work to develop their own valuation models using specialized metrics to calibrate them to any catalysts or events. Companies can be valued based on financial metrics as well as assets that may not be efficiently priced in. The “parts are worth more than the whole” is a common justification for under valuation, which assumes that the company may spin-off or sell certain assets to improve shareholder equity.
Reading Financial Statements
Publicly traded companies are required to file financial statements with the United Stated Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Investors can access this information directly from the SEC website through the EDGAR database. The three key documents every self-directed investor should be familiar with are the 10-K quarterly report; most recent annual report and recent 8-K filings of material events.
Quarterly earnings are initially disclosed in a press release and filed as a 10-K document afterwards. Companies will usually pair the earnings release with a conference call an hour afterwards or the next morning. The conference call can be very revealing, especially the question and answer session with analysts. Often times the company may disclose a bombshell item in the conference call including future earnings guidance estimates which may be increased or decrease from consensus analyst estimates, regulatory issues, impending lawsuits and major contract wins or losses, which can result in significant share price volatility
Understanding Industry Trends
Stocks are segmented by sector and industry. To ascertain the true performance of a stock, it should be evaluated amongst its competitors within the industry. When a particular sector or industry is very strong, it tends to lift most of the companies within. The leaders in the particular industry usually establish the industry trends. Therefore, it is prudent to stay abreast of the industry trends for your particular stocks. An effective way to pursue this is by identifying the top three leaders in the sector or industry. The performance of the industry leaders sets the sentiment with the group. For example, when a leading stock in the heavy machinery industry slashes its earnings guidance, it generates a top-down ripple effect for the peer stocks as well. It is guilt by association until proven otherwise as share prices sell-off.
Accounting for Company Growth
There are two types of accounting that is used with earnings reports. The official numbers are reported under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which take into account all expense items including non-cash compensation like restricted stock and options. Companies like to also provide non-GAAP numbers, which excludes non-cash items. The purpose is to allow shareholders to better gauge the growth of the core business without being sidetracked by factors that don’t affect cash flow. However, critics argue that non-GAAP accounting is deceptive. Any and all compensation must be accounted for especially when existing shareholders face further dilution in shareholder equity.
Using Financial Ratios
There are a number of widely used financial ratios that can be used to help investors gauge valuation and assess how a company stacks up against its peers. These ratios are standard on broker platforms as well as most popular search engines. Just as with technical analysis, financial analysis should be performed using multiple financial ratios to help paint a clearer picture of the operations.
Price-Earnings (P/E) is perhaps the most commonly used financial ratio. It measures the profitability of the company relative to the share price. All sectors have an average P/E, which can be found quickly by looking up the heaviest traded exchange-traded-funds (ETF) which track the specific index. This ratio can be used to compare a specific company with the industry, peers and or benchmark indices. For example, if the consumer discretionary sector has a P/E of 20 and your stock has a P/E of 55, it may be overvalued. Some sectors traditionally have higher P/Es than others, like technology compared to utilities. The S&P 500 has a historical P/E ratio of 21. Keep in mind that a company needs to generate profits in order to have a P/E. There are more ratios that can be used in the absence of profits.
Price-Sales (P/S) and Price-Book (P/B) are comparative valuation ratios that indicate if a stock is trading at a premium or discount compared to its peers and sector/industry. If a stock is trading at a very deep discount like .3 P/S compared to industry average of 2.5 P/S, then there could be an inherent structural problem with the business or could be overlooked by Wall Street and presents an undervalued investment situation and warrants further investigation.
Cash-Per-Share (CPS) and Book Value (BV) are two valuation ratios that can help determine if the stock has been overly punished by investors. When a company trades under the CPS or BV, it has virtually valued the business operations at zero presenting either a very undervalued situation or potential bankruptcy. The cash burn rate and debt should also be investigated. Biotech stocks are notorious for these situations. These ratios don’t apply well to financials like banks and insurance companies that tend to trade at or below CPS and BV, due to federal banking regulations and off balance sheet entities.
Keep in mind that every sector and industry has an average financial ratio, which can be used as a measuring stick. However, just because a stock has an aggressively high financial ratio doesn’t necessarily mean it is overpriced. Momentum stocks are notorious for exorbitant ratios.
Fundamental analysis definition
What is fundamental analysis?
Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating the intrinsic value of an asset and analysing the factors that could influence its price in the future. This form of analysis is based on external events and influences, as well as financial statements and industry trends.
Fundamental analysis is one of two major methods of market analysis, with the other being technical analysis. While technical traders will derive all the information they need to trade from charts, fundamental traders look at factors outside of the price movements of the asset itself.
Examples of fundamental analysis
There are various tools and techniques that can be used for fundamental analysis, but they have been categorised into two types of fundamental analysis: top-down analysis and bottom-up analysis. Top-down analysis takes a broader view of the economy, starting with the entire market before narrowing down into a sector, industry and finally a specific company. Conversely, bottom-up analysis starts with a specific stock and widens out to consider all the factors that impact its price.
Most fundamental analysis is used for evaluating share prices, but it can be used across a range of asset classes, such as bonds and forex.
The tools that traders might choose for their fundamental analysis vary depending on which asset is being traded. For example, share traders might choose to look at the figures in a company’s earnings report: revenue, earning per share (EPS), projected growth or profit margins. While forex traders may choose to assess the figures released by central banks that allow insight into the state of a country’s economy.
Pros and cons of fundamental analysis
Pros of fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis helps traders and investors to gather the right information to make rational decisions about what position to take. By basing these decisions on financial data, there is limited room for personal biases.
Rather than establishing entry and exit points, fundamental analysis seeks to understand the value of an asset, so that traders can take a much longer-term view of the market. Once the trader has determined a numerical value for the asset, they can compare it to the current market price to assess whether the asset is over- or under-valued. The aim is to then profit from the market correction.
Cons of fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis can be time consuming, it requires multiple areas of analysis which can make the process extremely complicated.
As fundamental analysis takes a much longer-term view of the market, the results of the findings are not suitable for quick decisions. Traders looking to create a methodology for entering and exiting trades in the short-term might be better suited to technical analysis.
It is also important to consider the best and the worst-case scenario. While fundamental analysis provides a more well-rounded view of the market, it is possible for negative economic, political or legislative changes to surprise markets.
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