The S&P 500 Price Forecast For 2020

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The S&P 500 Price Forecast For 2020

The Vanguard S&p 500 fund price is 243.630 USD today.

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S&P 500 forecast for 2020

Following an extraordinary year of double-digit growth, will the S&P 500 forecast for 2020 predict prosperity or decline for the major index?

Who had an accurate S&P 500 forecast in 2020? An S&P 500 forecast can be valuable heading into a new year… assuming it is right. The index’s barnstorming performance in 2020 surprised many economic analysts – driven by three sudden rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and hope that a rapprochement between the US and China will end an increasingly bitter trade war. It’s set to be the biggest annual gain in six years, and the third strongest since 2000.

analysis powerfully illustrates how good a year it’s been. Between January and November, the index gained more than 25 per cent. Such a stock market boom is difficult to come by, and there have only been six occasions in the past 30 years where the S&P 500 has grown by more than 20 per cent over this 11-month period. In each and every year that followed, the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq remained in green territory, so perhaps it’s no wonder that most projections for S&P 500 performance are rosy.

When it comes to recent S&P 500

history, Markets Insider figures from December 11 show that 10 of the 11 main stock market sectors have enjoyed double-digit growth of at least 15 per cent. Some, such as IT, have risen by 40.9 per cent. Energy was the only sector to buck the trend, and even then, it grew by a modest 3 per cent.

That isn’t to say there aren’t risks on the horizon. Although an interim deal between Beijing and Washington has been reached, Donald Trump claims many tariffs are going to remain in force – supposedly giving the US an upper hand as it embarks on a second phase of negotiations. On top of all this, the president faces a battle for re-election in 2020. While analysts are primarily concerned about the impact a potential Democratic president would have on the markets, some harbour doubts about Trump too.

Who had an accurate USA 500 forecast in 2020?

To determine who is on the money with their S&P 500 prediction for 2020, it’s a good idea to look at who called it right 12 months ago.

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In 2020, only two Wall Street banks were anywhere near being accurate: JPMorgan and Citigroup. Both had forecast that the index would likely end 2020 at about 3100 – and some derided this outlook as far too bullish. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 stood at 3168, far beyond their “outlandish” targets. Both had identified that the levels of panic in the market last winter were overly excessive, and they turned out to be right.

Other banks providing an S&P 500 outlook got things badly, badly wrong. While Morgan Stanley thought the index would end 2020 at 2750, France’s Societe Generale was even more fatalistic – setting a target of just 2400. Investors who listened to that advice would surely be kicking themselves now the S&P is currently a third higher than that.

So, let’s take a look at what the S&P 500 index projections are this year, starting off with those who have had the best track record recently.

JP Morgan US equities strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas has set a target of 3400 for the end of 2020 – that’s an increase of 7.3 per cent at the time of writing. He believes that earnings per share also have the potential to increase substantially, adding the caveat that this hinges upon if and when the US and China strike trade deals. On the question of the US election, he thinks it unlikely that a progressive candidate such as Bernie Sanders will end up in the Oval Office, adding: “We think that the two most likely outcomes are Trump’s re-election or an experienced centrist Democrat, which would be neutral or positive for markets (at least initially).”

Stock Market Forecast – 2020 Predictions

Today’s jobless claims report has had no effect on the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P markets. The markets were up yesterday as President Trump tried to broker a deal with the Russians to re-inflate oil companies which could go bankrupt.

Now, everyone’s attention is focused on where the bottom of the market will be.

As severe as the Corona Virus Recession is, we have to remember that the 5 year forecast and 10 year outlook remain positive. But the bottom is still to arrive. Bad news continues to affect the markets day to day and when that stops we might be at bottom.

The top story is the number of US Covid 19 cases and deaths. They’re climbing, with warnings on NJ, NY and now Florida. The pessimism and sell offs will create some incredible buying opportunities for those who keep their focus past the next 3 to 6 months.

This Bear Markets End with a Return of the Bull

After the last bear market, stock prices recovered fast. Oil prices are teetering on the brink, and low energy costs are a net positive for American business. Check out some the best stocks to buy.

Right now, investors are focusing on which are the best stocks to buy, in anticipation of a big market rally in May and June. Post Corona Virus, the 5 year forecast and 10 year projections are positive for US stocks.

News from Johnson and Johnson regarding testing of a Corona Virus treatment/vaccine was driving stock price rises recently however each day brings a market changing news. It’s likely we’re into a shutdown for the rest of April, and in NY till June. See major stock prices listed below via the live stock price widget.

Dow Jones Falls Again

Dow Jones April 1, 2020. Screenshot courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

Stock Market Indexes

Stock indexes today. Screenshot courtesy of Investing.com

When will stock prices rise again? Will there be a sudden rebirth of industry and commerce in let’s say May, or June and we’re back to where we were in the fall? The volatility of the markets reflects this uncertainty of the economic restart. Investors were becoming more optimistic the last week.

What are the Best Stocks to Buy Now?

Looking for the best stocks to buy? Check out companies ready for the recovery and be wary of potential bankruptcies. See the forecast for the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ forecast.

One stock market analyst said this could be W recovery instead of a V or U shaped recovery. That means we could be in for another mini stock market crash, or let down. The fact China has recovered and is opening up for business again, means the US will likely follow a similar path.

Jobless Claims Jumping

Last week’s 3.3 million jobless claims so far is likely just the tip of the iceberg as the shutdown continues. With some cities including New York suffering raging pandemics. The hypersters are talking a million cases in the US. This coming week’s jobs report might be worse. That and other factors are making stock market prices see saw.

The approval of the $2 Trillion economic stimulus package is finally giving hope to investors. See the stats and videos below. If we’re not at the bottom of this recent bear market or stock market crash, the 2021 stock market forecast is much brighter. With certainty about the length of this shutdown (2 months) and a big stimulus package, we can be more confident about late 2020, 2021 and the next 5 years ahead.

Screenshot courtesy of Yahoo Finance

Screenshot courtesy of Yahoo Finance

Return to Normal in Last Half of 2020

This bull cycle is not over. America’s spirit will recover and thrive. You’re wiser to begin your search for stock that will perform well post Corona Virus. Understand the post Corona economy and choose better stocks. Oil doesn’t look like a viable investment right now. See why in the oil price projection report.

In this post, see the: latest trends and projections, top gaining stocks, top losing stocks, what caused the recent market crash, the 5 year forecast from different sources, a sector watch, along with the best stocks to buy during this dip phase. Good luck finding the best stocks. And it might be time to investigate AI stock prediction.

Buying the Market Crash

Now that we’re into the damaging Covid 19 crisis, we might as well get something good out of it. Right now panic sellers are giving away their stock at bargain prices. Your task is to find the best stock going forward where you might double your wealth. See the 2021 stock market prediction post for more insight.

Which Stocks Will You Grab Up?

Jim Cramer says to look for individual company stocks because he’s sure they’re going to rise strongly. No need for ETF’s at all! Check out Google stock price, Apple Stock Price, Amazon Stock Price and Tesla Stock price.

It appears we’re officially into a stock market crash. Smart investors won’t be panicking. They’ll be patiently examining top losing stocks and combing through the best bargain stocks. There’s nowhere to invest other than stocks, so investors are buying $USD it appears.

It’s an embarrassing time for the stock experts as they can’t get a grip on what’s happening in these markets. The Fed just announced another rate cut and the government is preparing stimulus to help struggling businesses.

What Caused the stock market crash?

Here’s the key factors that took the market down. Low interest rates, low oil prices, latent demand, and lower consumer prices will take effect soon. The 5 year outlook is especially good (for investors who buy the best stocks now).

  • Corona Virus work stoppage
  • a WHO pandemic declaration
  • growth in US virus cases and deaths
  • US travel bans for Americans and advice to stay at home
  • oil price wars
  • bond market weakness
  • global economic setbacks
  • government corrective actions not enough to solve the issues

Top Gaining Stocks Today

What’s everybody buying today?

Top Gainers Today. Screenshot courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

Biggest Losing Stocks Today

Biggest Losing Stocks. Screen capture courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

Which are the Best Bargain Stocks to Buy?

Smart stock market investors are researching all the major exchanges for the best bargain stocks to buy. It might mean watching stocks daily to see which low priced stocks have the best upside potential. NASDAQ and the tech stocks seem to in demand, as the virus runs its course.

You can watch the markets live right now with Yahoo Finance Live

The run on Price of Gold recently may show the oil countries are selling gold to say afloat. The price of oil has sunk below $20 a barrel again today. It will be a boon for most American consumers, and others around the world as vehicle use and travel restart. Price of gasoline from California to New York has dropped significantly.

While investors are advised to sit tight and not panic, many might be ready to pull their money. Asian markets are down strongly (5%) this morning and US markets opening shortly are projected to plummet (The Dow by 1200 points). European markets have dropped with the US market fall.

While all of this extreme market volatility may subside by the summer, it will test the courage of investors worldwide. Investment advisors and experts will have their ultimate tests in the coming weeks and months. Volatility and political strife seems to beget more of it. There will be carnage in the coming weeks, but long term, after the Corona Virus subsides (only a few new cases of Covid 19 in China now), economies will revive.

Oil Prices Crashing

The bad news comes amidst superb job creation numbers in the US, and oil price plunges. The latest shock is a drop of 25% in WTI oil price. Brent Crude futures fell to $36 a barrel. Some are seeking shelter in gold and silver, but not cryptocurrency which has been plunging.

Why All the Panic?

Some experts warned of a correction of an overpriced, overbought stock market. Others are now looking at the Sanders/Biden threat to the markets. Governments and businesses will have trouble paying their debts, along with laid off workers buying food, and paying mortgages. Problems can cascade.

Perhaps AI stock prediction and programmatic trading platforms are measuring these sorts of things. No one is talking about that right though.

The virus panic is shutting down China’s supply chain to its customers, and would cause a recession short term. One expert is talking 40% losses which is a stock market crash.

Short term, it will cost corporations and small businesses. The travel sector is crashing. Long term, it still means companies around the world would turn to more regional supply chains which are more reliable, in future.

It’s important to know that markets always bounce back after these steep losses however it doesn’t look like we’re at the bottom of this correction/panic.

The VIX is on a wild ride. Where will it go tomorrow? Just a side note, do you think AI stock prediction tools can help see through such volatility? This spring and summer weather forecast is positive which should help farmers and the vacation industries.

Stock Markets Today. Screenshot courtesy of cnbc

For the US however, the virus scare should encourage more manufacturing to return to the US. Apple for instance is taking big losses because of delays in iPhone deliveries. After the Corona correction, the US could enjoy more solid growth.

Investors should watch stocks hit hard by the virus as this could forewarn of poorer performance from those companies going forward. The market darling Tesla for instance is taking a big dive. High flying Amazon may take a big dive during this outbreak which after all, hasn’t hit the US yet. Google and Facebook may see revenue losses from reduced advertising during this 1st quarter.

The Stock Market Forecast for 2020 is Uneasy

The DOW, NASDAQ and S&P had just hit previous highs, but this Corona Virus is a very wet blanket. So what was a rosy situation as we started 2020, is quickly souring.

However, the pandemic hasn’t hit the US. The US economy is still solid and improving, but is it exempt from the virus fallout? Some suggest the US will actually benefit from China’s new disease as manufacturers decide that production should move back to America. Here are the key factors driving the ever improving outlook for the US stock market:

  1. US job numbers — 200,000 announced on Friday
  2. ISM manufacturing index rose 3.1 to 50.9 last month, the highest level since July
  3. fears about Corona Virus in North America growing
  4. President Trump acquitted on Democrat impeachment gambit
  5. interest rates are about to fall as Fed discusses rate cut in March
  6. China stocks dropping, manufacturing shutdowns, and exports stopped
  7. China is cutting their import tariffs and bailing out businesses at risk
  8. strong earnings reports across the board
  9. US companies such as Tesla making a lot of noise
  10. USMCA signed and Canada soon to ratify it
  11. oil (forecast to sink below $40) and no demand growth for 2020

2020 Forecast for next 6 to 9 Months

Stock Market Forecast to Q4 2020. Screenshot courtesy of Tradingeconomics

Once in a lifetime Opportunity for big short term and long term equity gains. See the Best Stocks to Buy

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The Corona Virus death toll is rising faster, hitting 243,000 cases with almost 10,000 deaths. Although some forecasters are predicting a low 1.2% GDP growth this quarter, the stock markets weren’t affected by the outbreak until this week.

Company’s with significant manufacturing or sales exposure to China are getting hammered.

Here’s the biggest losing US stocks to watch for buying:

Mjajor Losing Stocks. Screenshot courtesy of Yahoo Finance

Check the extensive stock price list and stats below for best picks. Also check out the AI stock picks, and AI stock trading software and see the market pages for real time price quotes.

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For a year that was predicted to be a total waste due to rising interest rates, trade wars, tariffs, political embargos, and a global slowdown, 2020 didn’t turn out all that badly. The stock market in 2020 is looking good. Hopefully this optimism will brighten the housing market forecast for 2020 after languishing in pessimism.

Major Stock Indexes. Screenshot courtesy of Yahoo Finance.

Screenshot courtesy of Tradingeconomics.com

US Consumers Still Supporting the Markets

As the above graphic depicts, US consumers are still on a high pitch. It will take more than a brief shock to upset them. Banks too are very strong. And President Trump has made no mention of taking action on the US monopolies, Google, Facebook, and Amazon which would cause a ruffle for a while. We’d have to think the FAANGs will do well in 2020 until monopoly charges are finally laid.

What are the Best Stock Picks?

Lately, these stocks have performed well in early January. These have been consistent for several weeks now.

Screenshot courtesy of Yahoo Finance

Questions About the Stock Markets

Your questions about the Stock Markets are likely regarding which are the best stocks to buy, which index has better performing stocks, and whether you should invest in the big tech companies? The markets are peaking so what will drive stock prices higher? Should you buy Tesla Stock, or Apple Stock and play follow the leader?

What is the Stock Market Outlook for the Next 5 Years?

The long term stock market outlook to 2024 looks more promising each month because many of the market detractors are losing credibility. Take a look at long forecasts predictions for the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq markets.

When Will the AI Era Begin in the US?

The use of AI in business, manufacturing and marketing will is expected to boost the economy by up to $2 Trillion. Even the development of AI trading software itself will create a boost. AI is coming in slowly, and the tech companies that utilize it are worth watching.

GM’s surprise move to build electric cars in Ohio could start the landslide of investment in US manufacturing. If investors believe President Trump will last and get elected again, it supports the certainty of a US industry revival.

Could microchips, electric cars, production robots, AI based services, and more be produced in the US? 2020 could be the year optimism broke the pro-Asia backs, and launch the US economy into an unprecedented era of prosperity?

Will Stock Prices Rise This Year?

The stock price trend is upward with no chance of a stock market crash. With rising labor market constraints, investors are wise to investigate artificial intelligence. AI marketing is the most recent sector to rise in effectiveness with AI. AI stock prediction is rising in popularity.

Yes, with US wages growing, unemployment low, and interest rates remaining low, you have strong evidence that Google stock price, Facebook stock price, Apple Stock Price, and Amazon stock price growth will continue in 2020. Tesla stock price is on fire.

It’s still wise to take a look at smaller, up and coming tech stocks on the Russell index.

5 Year Long Term Forecast Optimistic

The 5 year and long term outlook to 2024 look really good too because the American consumer is well employed. The latest jobs outlook report is excellent. The 2020 to 2024 5 year forecast period is not priced into the market, but instead on current earnings/sales.

Although President Trump is being harrassed by the Demo’s TV hype-filled impeachment party, his pursuit of a real trade deal with China is being viewed optimistically. See the stats below that support an optimistic market prediction.

Find the best stock picks that are making the biggest improvements below and more about the 2020 stock market forecast. Apple has hit new highs while Amazon and Netflix suffer. Find out what Jim Cramer of Mad Money thinks of the stock markets and the best industries.

Looking for the latest Apple stock price, Amazon stock price, Google stock price, Facebook stock price or Tesla stock price? Learn more about what underpins the potential of these Faang stocks.

Volatility from the Trade Deal: Splitting up a China agreement into phases likely won’t be successful. However, there is hope that something positive will evolve from negotiations with China.

Every time Trump hits China with penalties, the US stock markets jump, tariff revenues skyrocket and US business revenues rise. Take a look at the Yahoo chart below and notice the last big drop last November. It jumped right back up. China or no China, the US economic forecast looks strong.

The 2020 stock market forecast looks great for US-based companies which sell US-produced products. If the USMCA agreement is passed, it could bolster the US economy and brighten the housing market forecast. However, the Democrats could see this as their opportunity to thwart Trump, thus taking the economy hostage.

Market history: We’ve been talking stock market forecasts for a while now, so how have the indexes done in the last 5 years?

Chart courtesy of Morningstar.com

Technology the Hottest Sector of Late

Screen Capture courtesy of CNBC – Hot Market Sectors

We understood the Dow 30 industrials would get hit, but he focused on the S&P. How close are we though to the time that China’s markets collapse if a trade deal is not struck? See the best stock picks for October.

As long as the US stock markets are strong and the employment rate stays high, consumers will keep spending. The FED is expected to lower rates again and more US production is being ramped up. The indexes are up, and note that the Russell small business index is up 6.7% and is best performing in the last 2 weeks.

Stock Market Price Timeline Chart courtesy of Yahoo Finance

It’s a good outlook for small cap entrepreneurs when the big companies resume spending. The pain of refusal to invest in America will become too great, and the risk of losing market share will force CEOs and boards to act soon. President Trump is ensuring spending continues during the America First transition.

At this point, we can reassert our belief that China is disappearing from the American economic equation. China stocks will soon be removed from the US stock markets.

Trading Economics Projections are for all markets to sink through 2020 even as prices rise through the most troubled period.

Screen shot courtesy of TradingEconomics

Although the Dow listed companies suffer short term, they will recover in the next 4 years as they move production back to the US. This is what will drive the NASDAQ, DOW, S&P, Russell, and TSX to record highs in 2021.

Stock market predictions: As Trump tightens the screws on China, the Dow Jones forecast will drop. The true US focused companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange will likely shine this year and next.

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With fall approaching, it remains to be seen if President Trump can use taxes and low interest rates to keep the resurgent US economy rolling. Are we on the precipice of a major correction? I predict the US economy will be fine and that unmet consumer demand will ignite US service providers and manufacturing. That could be enough stimulus to reignite the housing markets too.

A glut of natural gas and oil globally could ensure low energy prices and low inflationary pressures. The US was pumping out 13 million barrels of oil per day now and Trump’s threat to take OPEC to court over price fixing is undermining the Saudis attempt to raise oil prices.

Hottest Stocks — Courtesy of Barcharts.com

Google Alphabet, Autozone, Domino’s Pizza, Roku, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Shake Shack, Wayfair, Sherwin Williams stock prices are just a few of the best performing stocks of recent. Find more of them on Barcharts.com.

Best Stocks February – Screen shot courtesy of Barcharts.com

If we remember that the America First agenda is about America, it might point to good times ahead for American investors and businesses. Still the Dem’s media channels are firm in their 2020 crash forecast and that the global economic withdrawal will somehow come back to haunt President Trump.

Avoiding Media Traps Being Set

I’m of the opinion that President Trump simply needs to weather the media storm, and the US will be back to another bull run stock market after the 2020 election. The President hasn’t put enough pressure on the multinationals to bring manufacturing back to the US. And it’s allowed them to wait it out till the 2020 election. That’s why we’re in this anxious period.

Of course, they’re hoping he’ll lose and jobs will be shipped back to China, then and China’s off to the races again. But what would everyone think of this scenario? Would Americans really be happy with China prosperity and a return of huge trade deficits? China’s recent human rights abuses, and the WTO’s warnings to China about it’s trade unfairness presents issues the communists won’t deal with well.

The recent stock market crisis was a transition and what’s transpired is new record levels for the NASDAQ, DOW and S&P. Investors are calming down as recession fears fade, inflation is subdued, the Federal Reserve is pausing on raising interest rates, and the economy is showing resilience. China-U.S. trade talks are progressing although Brexit issues still exist.

The Feds pulled back on damaging interest rate rises, trade war fears dissolved, GDP was up. Democrats won’t like it, but the markets are poised for much more growth in the last half of 2020.

Here’s how the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ markets rebounded earlier, yet fallen of late.

Stock Market Forecast Signals

The NASDAQ, S&P, DJIA, and Russell index are 4 key signals in the new American economy. Those analysts who suggested getting out of equity markets might be having second thoughts. See the S&P forecast.

Screenshot courtesy of NASDAQ July 2020 Review and Outlook

If all you’ve been hearing is doom and gloom global politics, trade retaliation, interfering Fed chairman, price rises, government standoffs, stock market crashes, and housing corrections, you’ll be relieved that the worst is over. Let’s see a common sense look at the stock markets free from media hype and propaganda.

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Best Stock Picks for 2020?

US stocks are gold. The most recent US jobs report, 2020 economic forecast and consumer intent index level in February were okay, surprisingly. That would us make an easy, obvious projection that the economy and stock markets can turn around by August. That’s important for President Trump to get reelected. This biggest threat to your stock investments, amidst this continued Bull run, is the Democrats don’t win.

The Democrats are anti-business and pro-China which obviously won’t bode well of US company profits and US employment.

To help you see the real, big picture context, and make good better decisions on volatile exchanges, here is a big picture look at some the best stocks for 2020.

Here’s Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin with his stock picks for 2020. He also forecasted “the index climbs by 6% to our target of 2875 in 2020” — interview in TheStreet. Kostin is keen on FAANGs.

  1. Align Technology (ALGN) (+22% revenue growth estimate)
  2. Amazon (AMZN) (+22%)
  3. Autodesk (ADSK) (+27%)
  4. Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) (+34%)
  5. Concho Resources (CXO) (+30%)
  6. Facebook (FB) (+27%)
  7. Netflix (NFLX) (+25%)
  8. Pentair (PNR) (+22%)
  9. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) (+22)

He advises high revenue growth firms, and that has to favor US companies. There’s still some value in investing in Faangs, such as Facebook or Google. Get the latest Google Stock price, and Facebook stock price. See our best stocks picks for 2020.

All of the companies in the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P can still make money in the new US-based economy (auto and chip producers for instance), but it might be smaller American companies and those in the Russell 2000 index you should watch.

Screenshot courtesy of longforecast.com

Questions to Ask About the Markets?

It’s all about questions, because your questions reveal the depth of your understanding. Learn more and make your own market projections. Some simple questions might generate better insight and decisions. It’s your money so there’s no end to your questions.

  • what is the likelihood of a stock market crash?
  • are US Stocks rising because foreign stocks are falling?
  • will SMB stocks outperform the large caps in 2020?
  • how is the US government protecting the development of US-based businesses?
  • which US economic sectors have the best potential for American businesses?
  • are US economic indicators positive (GDP 1.8% and better than expected)?
  • what will happen to sectors when interest rates eventually climb?
  • is a US-only based stock portfolio offering the best potential, at least until the elections in 2020?
  • will FAANG stocks sink further downward if pro-US agenda persists?
  • are the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P, and Russell indexes only reflecting the death of the old economy?
  • is volatility is a sign of how investors are adjusting/transitioning to US business and away from global business?
  • if a recession happens in 2020, could stocks could slide by as much as 20%?
  • which us stocks will plunge in 2020 and which of those make a good buy for the longer term?
  • trade war would only benefit US business even more because it would solely own the US consumer who are very positive at this time
  • should you invest in China, with its 750 million internet users in stocks such as China’s version of Netflix (IQ)? or is everything in China doomed along with its crashing housing market?
  • us economic performance so strong in 2020/2020 and investors wonder if the market has peaked
  • some experts are pushing the idea of the end of business cycle button
  • china/asian companies/stocks are losing their market
  • china economy losing its supports — turning inward now
  • EU is trying to hang to UK and other departing members
  • Saudis indicating they will pump out more oil now so can you expect an oil glut and prices flattening out?
  • will shaky relations with the middle east result in major market changes?
  • is there still a huge demand for housing markets if economic management wants to support construction?
  • is negative sensationalist Democrat media strong enough to talk down the market — and change the focus back to pro-Asia, pro-multinational international corporate perspectives?
  • how will volatility affect nervous investors will get little guidance about what what is really happening
  • should investors profit on the volatility (VIX index) with market timing?
  • will this US midterm result in the usual witn non-incumbents getting elected?
  • Is the Fed chairman trying to move the market back to fundamentals and traditional behaviors?
  • Is the Fed chairman pushing up rates suggesting his belief the economy will improve in 2020/2020?
  • will the Fed raise interest rates and move to end this business cycle?

Bad Advice: “If Trump were able to successfully pressure the Fed into adjusting course, it could have sudden and unpredictable effects on the U.S. economy. Markets have long seen the independence of the central bank as a critical ingredient in stability, and Powell has vowed to uphold it” — from a Portland Herald Story. Trump has managed to get Powell to hold off on interest rate rises which we now know would have crippled the economy.

  • Is the economy adjusting to new technology such as AI, automation, heartland growth, Internet of Things, G5 wireless?
  • will volatile, AI robot-controlled ETF funds could cause a market crash – ETFs valuations trading is dictated more by the buying and selling of the funds, rather than by company’s own profit fundamentals?\
  • do artificial intelligence systems really understand Trump and the new US-based markets?
  • as international companies/economies weaken, will the desperate move to US markets grow pushing the dollar higher?
  • how effective can the Democrats be in taking down US growth, small business growth, American consumer optimism, and tax benefits for US businesses, low rate business environment in the US, can they hide/downplay the dangers of moving business back to Asia?
  • will the EU finally fall to pieces without tariff-free access to easy US markets and fend off China dumping?
  • how much could inflation and high interest rates erode US GDP?
  • how much will rising wages (forecast 4.8%) help improve demand for US goods/services?
  • how much will the national deficit and trade deficits slow economic performance?
  • is your financial/stock market advisor a democrat or republican?

Stock Market Forecast to 2020

The NASDAQ, DOW Jones, S&P and Russell 2000 indexes to 2020 from Tradingeconomics.

Stock Market outlook courtesy of tradingeconomics.com

Old Market Forecasting Models Don’t Cut It

If the experts looked at their models more accurately, they’d see huge unfulfilled demand, disappearing regulations and drag on the US economy, tax and tariff positives in the US, technology cultural changes, confidence in jobs and higher wages, and an investor/US citizen base just about fed up with Democrat media reporting.

For instance investment experts liked SNAP, Amazon, Facebook, and disliked Tesla. How’s that advice looking right now? There are experts still advising investing in China companies. What does the technical and emotional indicators suggest how that will likely turn out?

US and global investors have plenty of tough questions about where to invest their 401k, and other retirement funds, and how to profit from all the turmoil going on, and whether traditional investing advice is wise during a Trump-lead market. These are uncertain and volatile times with the polarization of the Democrats and Republicans, and with multinational corporations trying to hold onto the old international trade system.

The stock market and economic experts aren’t taking into account political and emotional signals (emotional intelligence?) and not taking threats to US economic growth seriously enough. EU and China opposition along with Democrat media (creating negative events) can scare investors, even though the US economy is booming.

* the above post includes opinions of the author and do not connote recommendations of any kind regarding stocks to invest in. The material is provided as general information only. For all your stock investment decisions please refer to your financial investment advisor.

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Where S&P 500 ends this year and starts the next one

S&P 500 was a gainer in 2020 with a rally of more than 25% so far. It seems like the index may show the best performance since 2020 and the third-strongest annual gain in 19 years.

The surge is based on several factors. Among them are an accommodative monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, strong American economic data, waning risks of the recession, and rumors about the closer US-China trade truce.

Many industries of the S&P 500 showed a great performance. According to the Market Insider, the first one is the information technology with a performance of 40.9%. The highest-weighted holding is Microsoft. Communication services are on second place with a 28.7% performance and Facebook as a leader of the industry. Financials and its performance of 26.8% is the third top industry. Berkshire Hathaway Class B is the highest-weight holding. The next one is industrials and its 25.3% with Boeing being the leader. And finally, the real estate with 23.1% gain and American Tower as a leader.

Middle-term perspectives

The most important question of the year-end is whether the index is able to set new records or the pullback is unavoidable. December 15 will become a sticking point in the Sino-US trade dispute that may either push S&P 500 up or cause a rollback. The United States is due to implement 15% tariffs on Chinese export. If that happens, China will retaliate with 5 % and 10% levies. Such a scenario will lead to a risk-off sentiment that will pull the index down. If the deadlock is broken, S&P 500 will get a chance to meet new highs.

What levels to expect

According to the data by the CNBC, the maximum target for the index price in 2020 is $3,250 (Deutsche Bank). The minimum target is $2,550 (UBS). The medium level is $3,000.

Source of the table: CNBC

However, the technical setup may show something different.

On the daily chart, the pair tested highs above $3,180. Up to now, it has been moving down. However, the fall may be limited. The further direction will depend on the tariffs’ outcome. In the case of the tariffs’ implementation, the risk-off sentiment will pull the index down towards supports at $3,125, $3,091, and $3,070. If the market sentiment is supported by the trade truce, the S&P 500 will set new highs above $3,180. It has a long way towards the Deutsche Bank’s projection of $3,250.

There is a high probability that the index will stay above 3,000 in any case until the beginning of 2020.

Long-term perspectives

The year is near its end and it’s time to get some projection for 2020.

Wall Street’s analysts predict a modest rise of the index in 2020 compared to 2020. The risk reasons are a slowdown in America’s economic growth, reduction in stock buybacks, and high volatility due to the presidential elections, prolonged trade risks are likely to affect the willingness of the investors to buy stocks.

Bank of America considers an additional thread. The key components of indexes are mostly bought by passive funds, not active investors. It leads to the fact that fundamental stock indices are relegated to the background in the flow of funds. Around half of US stock ownership is passive. Such stocks have wider bid-ask spreads than usual that cancels potential transactions and suppresses liquidity of shares.

Source of the table: CNBC

The average forecast for the S&P 500 in 2020 is $3,272 by the end of the year (that is a 5% rise from the current levels).

Credit Suisse predicts the S&P 500 price at $3,425 that is about 9% upside from current levels. As for favored sectors, they are technology, discretionary, financials, industrials, and materials. The defensive sectors are supposed to lag.

Merrill Lynch places the target at $3,300. It sees the US domestic earnings to increase faster than multinationals, with slowing estimate cuts for value stocks and guidance being better for small-cap stocks.

JPMorgan declared that there could be as much as 25% earnings growth in the case of the US-China trade truce, but if only the deal cancels all the existing tariffs that have been implemented. It sounds not that realistic.

RBC Capital Markets sees the S&P 500 at $3,350 although there may be a near-term market top from excessive sentiment and near-term consolidation.

Source of the chart: Investing.com

On the chart above, you can see the highest, the lowest, and the average price projections for 2020.

Time to conclude

We can say that this year the S&P 500 was a great gainer. However, the surge may be limited next year. The major factors of the risk-off sentiment that may pull the index down are the American economic data, trade disputes, slowdown in the global growth and possible recession. The index is expected to stay above the $3,000 level. Nevertheless, the rise will not be that extensive as it was in 2020. Investors should pay high attention to the market environment checking the news. Analysts may change the forecasts during the year, that is why it’s important to be up to date.

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